Australia dating idea

Deep connection

2011.08.23 12:30 Deep connection


2020.11.28 20:06 Professional_Hour_48 We plan and Allah plans. And Allah is the best of the planners.

This is going to be a long one I hope you guys bear with me. So when I was 15 I met this guy on Facebook and like a brainless teenager I started talking to him. He was 3years older to me pursuing engineering and was very sweet . We made it clear that he was like a brother to me and he treated me like his little sister. It went like this for few years till I started my high school and lost the watch my grandpa gifted me on the first day of school. I couldn’t tell this to my parents because I already lost a watch my dad gave my mom for their anniversary and they were pretty mad about it already.
He was the only one I could think of and asked for help. Sure enough he bought me the exact same watch and we met for the first time when he came to give it to me. I saw his pictures before and he looked different in everyone of them so when he came I didn’t recognise him at first. I was extremely nervous and was shaking because it’s Haram and I have anxiety. He held his hand out to do a handshake but I never touched a nonmemhram before so I didn’t shake his hand. Things got awkward and he left after giving me the watch. Honestly I wanted to ghost him after that because I wasn’t expecting the handshake and I just wanted this watch and didn’t want to fall into haram relationship with him. We kept talking and he was mad at me for not shaking his hand. He couldn’t understand why I didn’t and was asking all this friends why I might have done that as he wasn’t very religious and never had this happen to him. I told him I never want to touch someone who’s not my mehram and he was in shock I guess.
A few days later we met again when he wanted me to help him with his assignment and came to drop his supplies. This time he didn’t even look at me once and didn’t even try to force a conversation just gave me the supplies and left. The third time we met when he came to take his assignment from me, it was his birthday and I made him a huge birthday card and this time I gave in to the temptations and shook his hand. I held it really hard and didn’t leave it for some time to tease him. I was falling in love with him. I couldn’t help it he was the sweetest cutest guy I’ve ever met. I proposed and he confessed that he fell for me the day we first met when he first saw my eyes out of the niquab I was wearing. (cringey I know).
We were madly in love with each other and I was sure my parents would accept him when the time comes for my marriage so I justified my haram relationship to myself as I was gonna marry him anyway. I’m the eldest of 5 siblings and my parents were never there for me growing up so I never left loved and when this guy comes from nowhere and started showering all his love on me bringing me gifts, complements me everyday and does everything I ask him to. I never took advantage of him and although it was difficult for me to trust him and love him (didn’t know how to love I was surrounded with very selfish people who only cared about themselves) I did the best I could.
When he completed his graduation he took a job at Amazon but I wanted him to go abroad and do masters as my parents will not be able to reject a guy like that. Now he was a smart intelligent guy but didn’t have any interest in his degree and failed in a few subjects and had to wait another year to clear his subjects and get his degree. So he continued working at Amazon for a year. Till now I used to think he’s not passionate about anything and will not do much in life but I was okay with it cuz I was extremely ambitious and thought that was enough. Now I wanted to become my best self to make it easy for his parents to accept me I took a year off to prepare for pre med school entrances. He cleared his exams and got admitted to western Sydney university in Australia while I couldn’t crack the pre med and my dreams of becoming a doctor shattered. His elder sister was a doctor and thought his parents will be impressed and accept me easily if I was a doctor too.
That was the lowest point in my life I was extremely disappointed and heartbroken. It was my parent’s dream to make me a doctor and I couldn’t fulfil that dream that was the most difficult part of my 18 year old life. I got into pharmD at a prestigious college and he went to Australia. Now this was my plan to send him there and make him do his masters while him and his family never wanted him to leave. His father is the decision maker in his family and everybody blindly obeyed all his commands. He’s very orthodox and extremist when it comes to his understanding of the religion. Convincing his dad to let him go to Australia was the second most difficult thing he ever did for me. It was like a world war 3 and I was his only support in this whole process of getting admission and the visa.
The moment he step foot in that land he started hustling and the struggle was real. He managed his uni his assignments while working 2 jobs and doing the house chores of which he had no idea about as he was pampered a lot by his mom. He learned to cook to clean to do his laundry and bought his first car. He could only sleep for 5-6 hours at night and never complained once even though he hated being there he did it all for me.
As the time went by he got used to the life there and started enjoying his new life. I used to force him to take breaks, to go to the beach and go out with friends during weekends. I was his only support and his only friend. Sometimes he cried himself to bed cuz he was homesick and I felt guilty for making him go through all this. But in a way I was happy for him he achieved so much became a totally new person I was so proud of him of the person he’s become. He would comfort me saying you’d have done the same for me reminding me of the time I was preparing for med school spending 15+ hours studying and how I did that to impress his parents now it’s his turn to do the same for me. All my friends were sceptical about this long distance relationship and said it never works and he’ll change once he goes there. But instead everyday our love only grew stronger and we became closer to each other to the point where all we could ever think about was each other our future together. I would be lying if I said I didn’t feel lonely cuz he was busy and tired all the time and couldn’t be there when I needed him but he tried his best and I was always always there for him no matter what. My parents at this point started talking about my marriage (they’ve been talking about it for a while now but I asked for more time whenever they brought this topic up) so I decided to tell my dad about it cuz and he was surprisingly cool with it and asked me to ask his dad to talk to him. The only problem was he couldn’t tell his dad yet cuz his dad was busy trying to find someone for his elder sister and said he wouldn’t even think about his marriage till his elder sister didn’t get married first.
According to our plan his sister should have been married by now with 3-4 kids but Allah had other plans. I asked my dad to give him some time and since his whole family (his mom his lil bro and his sis) loved me he made his mom talk to my mom and she asked for some time for his elder sister to get married first. My dad liked him but my mom didn’t and she hated me for being in a haram relationship. I told them I knew him since 3 years while I’ve known him for 8 years. Time went by and pressure grew from my side till there was no option but to tell his father about it.
We were devastated his father screamed at him cursed at him (and at me) was behaving like a typical Bollywood dad -you can’t marry someone of your own choice love marriages always fail I’ll never approve it over my dead body how could you even think about it while your elder sister is still un married and stuff like that. I told this to my parents and they asked me what to do next? They gave me 2 options 1- to wait for his fathers approval (which seemed highly unlikely) or 2- to cut ties with him completely and move on. I said I’ll move on I apologised to my mom for hurting her so much and for breaking their trust.
I tried to look normal to my parents but I was broken on the inside. I had this habit of self harm when I was a kid and I was so afraid that one day I might kill myself. It was horrible I loved him way too much and couldn’t even think of life without him. He was completely heartbroken too. He was more weak emotionally out of us so I was afraid he might do something reckless he was all alone there on his own with his dad not talking to him and having to deal with a breakup while also being broke. It’s gonna sound cheesy but he hated when I cried he couldn’t stand it and I didn’t have the permission or the need to cry during our relationship that was the happiest I’ve ever been so now I couldn’t cry even if I wanted to. Just a few tears here and there but I forgot how it’s done and still can’t cry.
It’s been 5 months since we broke up and 1 month since I last spoke to him. I don’t know if what I’m feeling is right or not but I feel cheated. I knew my parents would accept our relationship so I let it happen but he knew his father and but still chose to ignore the fact that he would never let this happen and continue the relationship. I feel played I feel dumb for letting him do this to me. I feel dumb for ignoring the red flags.
All these years I did nothing but love him With all my heart I always wished the best for him prayed for him prayed for his success prayed for his family prayed for our future together. I was always there for him when he needed me I never denied him anything there was never a day an hour or a moment that I didn’t have him on my mind. There was never a day when we didn’t talk. We never fought and even if we did we would patch up in a few hours.
I was shocked to see him change that was the one thing I dreaded the most that he would change and he did. he became a totally different person when it came to defending the mistakes of his family specially his father. He manipulated me into thinking I was wrong to fight for my career as I should be able to give it up for him if I truly loved him. He accepted that his dad was wrong but took his side anyway saying in Islam we’re supposed to obey our parents no matter what and I died trying to explain to him our obedience is only for Allah and not for our parents we are only supposed treat them kindly but he never listened.
I lost my self respect as I was willing to give up my career and the happiness of my parents for him but he wasn’t willing to do the same for me. I lost my self esteem and became depressed. To deal with the breakup (which coincided with lockdown unfortunately) and to numb myself to the reality I started watching movies. When I wasn’t watching movies I was sleeping. I slept for 14-15 hours a day and watched 3-4 movies every day. I’ve watched Kabir Singh so so many times by now hating shahid Kapoor for looking so much like him in the movie.
He has his job as a field engineer so it requires him to travel to new locations for work and he’s busy in his life but I’m here free all the time thinking about him. I kept thinking that I’ll never be able to love someone as i loved him I’ll never be able to make that bond with anybody else. It just won’t be the same and will have to go through this whole falling in love thing all over again. Sounds tedious.
Allah made dating and premarital relationships haram for a reason I learned it the hard way. Now I just wanna get married and move on from this stage of my life.
Conclusion: Don’t fall into haram relationships folks.
submitted by Professional_Hour_48 to MuslimMarriage [link] [comments]

2020.11.28 11:24 timeisillmatic86 HSV2 changed my life for the better!

Hi all,
After being a lurker I decided I would share how I dealt with HSV2.
I am a 30/M from Melbourne, Australia and I was diagnosed when I had just turned 25. At the time I was recently single and had no idea who gave it to me. Like all of us I had to learn to come to terms with the diagnosis and I played the "horror" stories in my head of being alone forever etc.
Learning to deal with stress - You cannot control external events, you can only control how you respond to them:
I decided that it was unhealthy to fixate on having HSV2 and used the diagnosis to motivate me in regards to getting my life together. I started going to the gym on a regular basis, I cut out gluten and sugar from my diet, started intermittent fasting, and worked on my mental health.
I needed to remind myself that what I could control was how I reacted to the diagnosis, not the diagnosis itself. In life, we struggle to cope with expectations and try to control the uncontrollable. The diagnosis is done, it's finished, it's over. Stop asking why or who or how this will only lead you down the path of fixation, resentment, shame, guilt, and lack of self-worth.
It is now time to start working on the future which means you need to focus on the present. This lead to me having the utmost gratitude and changing how I perceived my situation in life. If HSV2 is the worst thing that happens to me in life, shit I will be fine. I do not have a terminal illness, I do not have cancer, I have my eyesight, I can walk etc.
You need to learn how to deal with stressful life events.
Life is going to through more challenges and obstacles at you. You need to be prepared and HSV2 is a good place to start this preparation and figure out what works for you. Seeing a psychologist or a counselor can be a great place to start as they will provide you with tools for your toolkit. You can obviously do your own research and also discover what works for you.
I have now been with my partner who does not have HSV for 5 years. I was upfront with her and honest when we started dating. I let her know the facts, she thought about it and came to the conclusion that I am an honest person and am worth giving a shot. In regards to sex, I wear a condom and do not take antivirals, we only use protection because she cannot take the pill. There has been no transmission to date.
I initially got outbreaks for the first 1-4 months and I can now report it has been 4 and a half years since I have had an outbreak (I believe the reason I do not get outbreaks is due to the time I have put into learning to deal with stress, regular exercise, and healthy eating). I now have months where I forget I even have HSV2.
I wish you all the best on this wild journey we call life. HSV2 really really really isn't a big deal. Yes it's annoying, yes it is frustrating, yes it makes life a little more challenging. But what's life without a challenge?
Please feel free to message me if you have any questions, I am happy to help!
Below are the tools I have used to move forward with life. This is not me trying to push things on anyone. This is just what has worked for me, everyone is different.
Stoic philosophy introduction -
Stoicism and resilience -
Meditation and mindfulness on a daily basis/learning to be present.
ACT (acceptance and commitment therapy) - A evidence-based therapy model
The happiness trap how to stop struggling and start living - Russ Harris (a book on ACT)
Learn to create habits that are positive.
Atomic Habits by James clear (book).

Lastly, read books! There are so many that are amazing on self-development and mental health.
submitted by timeisillmatic86 to Herpes [link] [comments]

2020.11.28 08:41 RedditSuggestName 38 [F4M] #SoCal4SoCal - LTR. I'm looking for my guy. He'll love cats and dogs, want marriage and kids.

TL;DR: BBW, loves Disneyland, TV and her pets (2 cats and 1 dog); looking for a fellow DDF guy, who wants to get married and have kids in a couple years, too.
My dream is to find the whole 9 yards: friendship, fall in love, get married, raise kids together, with our pets; then we retire someplace warm or with a beach view. Does that sound good to anyone else?
I'm looking for a serious, long term, monogamous relationship.
I hope to meet someone with some similar interests, so we have something in common, but not someone exactly the same as me, because I don't think that'd be interesting or make for a good partnership.
We’d be partners that help each other out, making life more enjoyable along the way.
I just heard that song Landslide. The lyric mentions something about “I built my life around you.” That’s the exact opposite of what I’d want for myself or my partner. I have a full and happy life, I want to meet someone who feels they have that too. And we can just share and add to each other’s life.
If my long post is any indication, I’m a chatty texter; I respond as soon as I can. I will send things that remind me of you. Tell you how my day went, will want to hear about yours. I miss waking up to a good morning and ending the day with a good night text.
Apparently I have to say this explicitly. Only message if you are single and are also looking for commitment.
Locals only, because I do want to meet; COVID safe of course.
Be prepared to video chat. I have no desire to be catfished.
If you're allergic to cats and/or dogs, please don't message me. I know from experience, it's not going to go anywhere.
I'll always have indoor pets in my life.
Let's see, I've watched: Ozark, Narcos, Narcos Mexico, Dead to Me, Legacies, Living with Yourself, Preacher, Fleabag, Silicon Valley, Twin Peaks (old, movie and new), Ray Donovan, On Becoming a God in Central FL, Penny Dreadful, The Umbrella Academy, Perry Mason, The Boys, Atlanta, What We Do in the Shadows (still need to watch the movie; it's not on any of my streaming services right now), The Orville, Atypical, rewatching Supernatural.
Honestly, if there isn't at least a plan to meet within a month of talking, I'm out. I'm not looking for a penpal.
(I’m not a cook, so eat out at like Chipotle and poke bowl places.
I like going to fancy restaurants a couple times a year.
I’ll only go to concerts if I’ve got a good seat. This usually means buying the ticket the moment they go on sale. I’m not paying scalper prices.
For travel, I like to do it as economical as possible. Though when I went to Europe, I had the fold down seat on the airplane; no way was I flying 17 hours in economy. But it wasn’t the fanciest seat either; it was the middle version.
I like staying at fancy hotels on occasion, but booked well in advance to get a good deal, which is about $300/night.
I have a Disneyland annual pass, I do get a cheap hotel there on occasion, when I can be there for 2 days in a row; doggy goes with me. Hopefully you’ll have or want a pass too; if you don’t like going, fine, but help buy them for our kids).
We’re adults here; adults pay their own way.
I am NOT looking to be a sugar baby and won’t be someone else’s sugar momma.
Only a guy willing to to get an STD test and wear condoms gets to touch me.
I'm not into any pain, only pleasure, for both parties.
No, I’m not looking for anything casual or a FWB. No we would not see if we’re sexually compatible out on the first few dates.
Sex is an important part of a lasting relationship, but it’s not the only thing. We have to click elsewhere before we get to sex.
Honestly, if we can't have sex at your place, then this isn't going to work out. I'm extremely tired of talking to guys who have all these seemingly reasonable parent/sibling reasons why I can't go to their place. I've had enough. It now sounds to me like these guys are really married and trying to find an unwitting mistress. I’m sorry if that isn’t you. I tried keeping an open mind, but I can’t do that anymore.
I love the idea of each of us having a private space to go to if we just need some alone time. I think that’ll be important when we have kids, and are 10+ years into this.
Honestly, the thought of sharing a bathroom again terrifies me. I think that if it was the social norm for everyone to have their own bathroom, the divorce rate would go way down.
I am looking forward to cuddling before we fall asleep and when we wake up, and having sexevery day, ha
I do need to be with someone who is okay with my animals sleeping in the room. My dog sleeps on his own side of my king sized bed. One cat usually sleeps on her own, but about 5 am, insists on sleeping on my feet. The other cat is a loaner. He sleep downstairs usually; on occasion he’ll sleep next to the dog.
Hopefully we can find some kind of compromise; maybe move to a duplex or we'd have a very big home, with a master bedroom, with attached his and her bathrooms.
Thank you for reading. I know this was long, but I know what I want. Has anyone seen the great early 2010s show Happy Endings? There’s a quote that I think describes what I’m looking for. Someone to realize: “I found a woman who was so sure of what she wanted, and she wanted me.” Brad to wife Jane, S2E18 ‘Party of Six.’
In the subject line, please put your eye color. This helps me weed through the guys who only claim to read my post. And if you really want me to respond, then mention things that we have in common. I’ve included more than enough things to kick off a conversation.
Those who need NOT apply:
submitted by RedditSuggestName to R4R30Plus [link] [comments]

2020.11.28 01:43 RedditSuggestName 38 [F4M] #SoCal4SoCal - LTR. I'm looking for my guy. He'll love cats and dogs, want marriage and kids.

TL;DR: BBW, loves Disneyland, TV and her pets (2 cats and 1 dog); looking for a fellow DDF guy, who wants to get married and have kids in a couple years, too.
My dream is to find the whole 9 yards: friendship, fall in love, get married, raise kids together, with our pets; then we retire someplace warm or with a beach view. Does that sound good to anyone else?
I'm looking for a serious, long term, monogamous relationship.
I hope to meet someone with some similar interests, so we have something in common, but not someone exactly the same as me, because I don't think that'd be interesting or make for a good partnership.
We’d be partners that help each other out, making life more enjoyable along the way.
If my long post is any indication, I’m a chatty texter; I respond as soon as I can. I will send things that remind me of you. Tell you how my day went, will want to hear about yours. I miss waking up to a good morning and ending the day with a good night text.
Apparently I have to say this explicitly. Only message if you are single and are also looking for commitment.
Locals only, because I do want to meet; COVID safe of course.
Be prepared to video chat. I have no desire to be catfished.
If you're allergic to cats and/or dogs, please don't message me. I know from experience, it's not going to go anywhere.
I'll always have indoor pets in my life.
Let's see, I've watched: Ozark, Narcos, Narcos Mexico, Dead to Me, Legacies, Living with Yourself, Preacher, Fleabag, Silicon Valley, Twin Peaks (old, movie and new), Ray Donovan, On Becoming a God in Central FL, Penny Dreadful, The Umbrella Academy, Perry Mason, The Boys, Atlanta, What We Do in the Shadows (still need to watch the movie; it's not on any of my streaming services right now), The Orville, Atypical, rewatching Supernatural.
Honestly, if there isn't at least a plan to meet within a month of talking, I'm out. I'm not looking for a penpal.
(I’m not a cook, so eat out at like Chipotle and poke bowl places.
I like going to fancy restaurants a couple times a year.
I’ll only go to concerts if I’ve got a good seat. This usually means buying the ticket the moment they go on sale. I’m not paying scalper prices.
For travel, I like to do it as economical as possible. Though when I went to Europe, I had the fold down seat on the airplane; no way was I flying 17 hours in economy. But it wasn’t the fanciest seat either; it was the middle version.
I like staying at fancy hotels on occasion, but booked well in advance to get a good deal, which is about $300/night.
I have a Disneyland annual pass, I do get a cheap hotel there on occasion, when I can be there for 2 days in a row; doggy goes with me. Hopefully you’ll have or want a pass too; if you don’t like going, fine, but help buy them for our kids).
We’re adults here; adults pay their own way.
I am NOT looking to be a sugar baby and won’t be someone else’s sugar momma.
Only a guy willing to to get an STD test and wear condoms gets to touch me.
I'm not into any pain, only pleasure, for both parties.
No, I’m not looking for anything casual or a FWB. No we would not see if we’re sexually compatible out on the first few dates.
Sex is an important part of a lasting relationship, but it’s not the only thing. We have to click elsewhere before we get to sex.
Honestly, if we can't have sex at your place, then this isn't going to work out. I'm extremely tired of talking to guys who have all these seemingly reasonable parent/sibling reasons why I can't go to their place. I've had enough. It now sounds to me like these guys are really married and trying to find an unwitting mistress. I’m sorry if that isn’t you. I tried keeping an open mind, but I can’t do that anymore.
I love the idea of each of us having a private space to go to if we just need some alone time. I think that’ll be important when we have kids, and are 10+ years into this.
Honestly, the thought of sharing a bathroom again terrifies me. I think that if it was the social norm for everyone to have their own bathroom, the divorce rate would go way down.
I am looking forward to cuddling before we fall asleep and when we wake up, and having sexevery day, ha
I do need to be with someone who is okay with my animals sleeping in the room. My dog sleeps on his own side of my king sized bed. One cat usually sleeps on her own, but about 5 am, insists on sleeping on my feet. The other cat is a loaner. He sleep downstairs usually; on occasion he’ll sleep next to the dog.
Hopefully we can find some kind of compromise; maybe move to a duplex or we'd have a very big home, with a master bedroom, with attached his and her bathrooms.
Thank you for reading. I know this was long, but I know what I want. Has anyone seen the great early 2010s show Happy Endings? There’s a quote that I think describes what I’m looking for. Someone to realize: “I found a woman who was so sure of what she wanted, and she wanted me.” Brad to wife Jane, S2E18 ‘Party of Six.’
In the subject line, please put your eye color. This helps me weed through the guys who only claim to read my post. And if you really want me to respond, then mention things that we have in common. I’ve included more than enough things to kick off a conversation.
Those who need NOT apply:
submitted by RedditSuggestName to ForeverAloneDating [link] [comments]

2020.11.27 23:08 Gerald_the_ Ex-Girlfriend(22F) after 4 years is interested again? Maybe? I’m confused.

This is worth your time, I promise.
Our history is very long so I’m going to try and hit the background really quick and get to present quickly. I’m a 22 male.
We dated in high school, we were both 17 at the time. We’ve known each other since 9th grade. We met in junior year and things were good for 9 months. Then my friend killed himself. Her dad got sick with cancer and we were running between two states for his treatment until he passed. After we went through this we both were pretty messed up. She’s cheated on me during the relationship which I knew about and I “forgave” her(I was to young to really understand how to forgive someone for that at the time so we never really loved on from that). We both became emotionally abusive towards the each other. She graduated early from high school and left for Europe. When she left I felt like a everyone was abandoning me including my friends so I fell into drugs to cope with my depression. I went to two funerals. She went to 0. So she came back from Europe and we have never felt as distant from each other as when she came back. While she was over there she met a guy, let’s call him Aaron. She told me he was just a friend(foreshadowing).
I went to college a state away and she would come to visit. All the while I’m thinking that we’re still together. During one of her visits she says she’s going to Australia to visit Aaron, still claiming he’s just a friend. At this point I definitely had an idea in my mind but I was so fucked up in the head from suicidal thoughts and depression I just couldn’t even think logically about anything. Or maybe I just didn’t want to. So summer roles around after two semester in college and we’ve been seeing each other. I take a door to door sales job in South Carolina. She gets very upset that I’m not going to be spending the time with her. I go to SC and she calls me from Australia and breaks things off with and tells me everything how she fell in love with Aaron in Europe and they’ve been together ever since then. I’m obviously upset I don’t want her to leave me but looking back it makes a lot of sense that she would leave. While I’m in SC I meet a girl on tinder and we have a fun summer relationship, for me the first new relationship in 2 years.
Life goes on. We start talking again during my second semester of my second year at college. So maybe like 6-7 months not talking? At this point my depression has started to become more periodic instead of an endless stream. I go to Mexico and while I’m there I call her. I honestly don’t know what to call it, a mental breakdown? A depressive episode? I’m not drunk when I call her just an extremely fucked up mental state. I basically ask her to come back to me. She obviously tells me a flat out no. She says she loves Aaron, he’s the one. So we stop talking again. Summer roles around and I meet a really special girl who basically shows me how to be myself again, let’s call her Alexa. She has lots of panic attacks has had depression her whole life. I treat her really well and she treats me better than anyone has in a long time. The end of summer comes and as all good things do it ends because even though she likes me she doesn’t feel as though it’s working anymore. It’s not a mutual break up but it’s also not one sided. She did still like be so much and cared for me so much but she just simply wanted to move on to someone else.
So I start back at school after summer and my depression has come back and I’m feeling super low. It’s a very lonely semester. During Christmas my ex calls me and we reconnect it’s been another super long period of time since we talked. She was supposed to meet Aaron in Hawaii and he didn’t show up for her so their on a break. I go back to school after Christmas and I meet a girl, let’s call her Grace. Grace and me don’t have a lot in common but we get along really well and we just share a lot of the same values. The attraction we have to each other is insane. Of course when we go to have sex I can’t get it up...not sure why...I really like her...ya not sure why. Afterwards we talk and just decide to end it there so we can stay friends since we share a friend group and there is no reason to do anything dumb. The whole time all of this is happening I’m still talking to my ex from high school. She cuts off contact moves of Australia to be with Aaron. Corona virus starts and I end up living alone all summer because everyone I live with went back to their families. My depression gets really bad during this time without me even noticing like I just went straight into autopilot.
After summer everyone moves back and I end up going to see my doctor because for the first time I’m having mental breakdowns and random periods of extended time where all I can think about is killing myself for no reason at all(this is not normal for me). I withdraw from my semester at school. My ex wishes me a happy birthday. I go back to my home town to visit my parents and let them know what’s happening with me. While I’m there I visit my ex and tell her everything she’s missed. She tells me she broke up with Aaron because he kept relying on her for happiness. She has panic attacks now. At my house where I live in another state all my exes are starting to show up for our parties like all of them. Grace, alexa and my ex are all in one house with me at one point as well as other friends and roommates. If you didn’t catch that my ex came to my state to visit me. She hasn’t visited me in years. 3 years. She’s looking for a van, she’s a lot more interesting now doing skydiving and wanting to explore the world. She hasn’t seemed to have quite made up her mind about whether or not I’m included. She’s says I can go on trips with her and then immediately pulls back and says no.
So while she’s visiting me we spend a lot of time together and during a long car ride to leave the city and check out a van she basically just spends like an hour telling me everything I did wrong even though in the past weve talked about everything like this already and I apologize still I don’t argue because she is right. No complaints or rejection to anything she says but it does make me feel rather bad about myself. During this thanksgiving while we’re both back in our hometown she gets her van. Breaks up with her boyfriend in the hometown because they’ve grown apart for over 2 months haven’t even touched each-other. During this thanksgiving break we have seen each other every single day. She’s started to make commitments to doing fun trips with me, no real actions yet. She’s talked about a boy she has a crush on who she goes skydiving with but says she doesn’t want to have a crush on him. Aaron is moving to America she’s told me. We haven’t been intimate at all. All week she’s been pulling me closer to her emotional and physically but nothing outside of hanging out. She also has been asking if we’re friends A LOT and really pushing that saying we’re friends.
I’m just scared I’m not looking to drop her from my life, but this is probably the last time I’m going to let her in this way. I still like her and have feelings. She’s making a lot of plans with me, says she wants to come stay with me for a while in my state. She wants to go on lots of adventures but I don’t have the money to go so I’m going to get a job. The only problem is I feel like I may not be able to go all the time. The guy she has a crush on she says would go on all these trips but she’s making all these plans with me. It feels like we’re flirting again but I’m just so confused. What’s happening? Am I wasting my time? Is she not interested and just stringing me along because I won’t catch a hint?? She seems like she really wants me in her life but will move on from me if I can’t give her what she wants. She wants to include me in her life but she’s been single for about 5 months now. What’s happening I’m so lost.
submitted by Gerald_the_ to relationship_advice [link] [comments]

2020.11.27 13:18 yungslappa Looking to build a new PC for Gaming/Work ($2000AUD)

What will you be doing with this PC? Be as specific as possible, and include specific games or programs you will be using.
This would be my 2nd PC build, the first one I put together back in 2012 (I think) and I really haven't been up to date with PC knowledge. The main purpose of this PC would be for my new work (Architectural Design, Construction Testing and Architectural Rendering), so programs such as:
Autodesk Arch Suite (Revit, 360, AutoCAD) Lumion, Sketchup, Rhino, Adobe Suite (Photoshop, Illustrator, InDesign, Lightroom)
Id like to be able to use these programs (some of them in unison) comfortably. I play games with friends (MC, GTAV, Arma, Rocket League, LoL, etc) in my downtime so i'd like something beefy enough to handle most trending games at high/max settings. I guess I would prefer an Intel build aswell, I know next to nothing about AMD but if someone would enlighten me on their reliability/performance I'm all ears!
What is your maximum budget before rebates/shipping/taxes?
Look, I could probably stretch to a maximum of $2300AUD, but if what I'm asking for within this price range is not possible then i'd love to know what how much i'd need to save up! This is for work primarily, and essentially an investment into my future.
When do you plan on building/buying the PC? Note: beyond a week or two from today means any build you receive will be out of date when you want to buy.
I'd probably be building this as soon as i can as there are sales on atm.
What, exactly, do you need included in the budget? (ToweOS/monitokeyboard/mouse/etc)
Whole PC pretty much! I'd need: CPU, Motherboard, RAM, Storage, GPU, Perhaps cooling? Case, PSU, Network adapter if necessary, etc.
I have some parts that are in my current PC that might work but I'm really not sure.
All of my peripherals are fine as they are, so no need for keyboard/mouse/monitor.
Which country (and state/province) will you be purchasing the parts in? If you're in US, do you have access to a Microcenter location?
I live in Australia, so anywhere in AUS or can post to AUS without losing my kidney would be great!
If reusing any parts (including monitor(s)/keyboard/mouse/etc), what parts will you be reusing? Brands and models are appreciated.
I'm not sure if any of my current PC parts are worth keeping/compatible and reusing for the build, but I'll list them and if they're useful, id for sure use them! Current Build: CPU: Intel I7-4770 Motherboard: MSI H87I Mini-ITX GPU: Gigabyte GeForce 1050Ti PSU: Corsair VS650 Storage: Seagate Barracuda HDD 2TB ST2000DMOO01 & Samsung 860EVO V-NAND SSD RAM: G.Skill Ares 16GB (2x8GB) DDR3 Case: Bitfenix Shinobi (This case is falling apart, so a new one is defs necessary)
Will you be overclocking? If yes, are you interested in overclocking right away, or down the line? CPU and/or GPU?
Never really gotten into overclocking, so I'd rather not if I don't need to!
Are there any specific features or items you want/need in the build? (ex: SSD, large amount of storage or a RAID setup, CUDA or OpenCL support, etc)
No specific needs for it, just something that'll perform well and last a while before i need to change anything out!
Do you have any specific case preferences (Size like ITX/microATX/mid-towefull-tower, styles, colors, window or not, LED lighting, etc), or a particular color theme preference for the components?
I'm not really fussed in terms of the aesthetics of the case (rgb lighting and stuff isn't necessary), if possible a smaller than mid-tower case that's not boring, and has portable potential would be awesome!
Do you need a copy of Windows included in the budget? If you do need one included, do you have a preference?
Not necessary!
Extra info or particulars:
I really appreciate if you've read this far into my request, I've been trying to figure out something for a little while now but the market and prices have changed so drastically that I have no idea whats really good anymore. If you put something together that's a little out of budget, that's OK for me too! It would just let me know how much ill need to save for something like this. Once again, Thankyou!
submitted by yungslappa to buildapcforme [link] [comments]

2020.11.26 12:25 lucyzara012 How to reduce the stress of writing assignments in Australia?

Apart from writing exams, you also feel the stress of writing your assignment as well. When you are studying in the prestigious universities of Australia, you have to write plenty of assignments for enhancing your knowledge and grades. You can’t say no to your professors whether you have time or other issues. In any condition, you have to finish your work within the assigned timelines. Without taking Assignment Help, you may feel less sufficient to write your papers in some cases. Therefore, you have to think about the available options of taking help in writing your papers in Australia so you will not degrade your performance.
Fear of missing or losing your performance may create stress in your mind and affect your studies. To keep your tension low, you need to think about the ways to eliminate the stress of missing due dates. For that, you can use some simple methods:
  1. The first thing that will come in your mind for writing your homework is using assignment help services. With the help of experts, you can make your writing simple and easy to do. Professional academic writers know how to present information in the right manner so you will face issues in presenting your ideas correctly. This will help in lowering your tension in submitting your homework.
  2. The second method you can use (without taking any help) is to manage your hours. If you follow a good routine and keep some hours for daily studies, you can even manage surprise exams. Tensions come when you have little time to manage your activities. The same thing is applicable to assignment writing. So, do manage your hours and keep yourself ready for writing your papers.
  3. For lowering your tension level, you can make a study group with your friends or classmates. Make sure to maintain your comfort zone while creating your group so you can share your issues without any hesitation. Discuss your concerns in the group or questions that restrict you to complete your papers on time. Get the solutions and finish your work easily. If properly used, these kinds of groups keep you motivated for your studies.
  4. Give some time to yourself. Always thinking about your studies and goals make you more possessive and hard. You can’t enjoy your life if you keep yourself busy in studies. So, it is necessary to keep some time your own development. Go beyond your daily routine, try something new thing, enjoy your passion, and take important lessons from outside the world. For a lower level of your strain, manage your both personal and study life.
  5. Make a good and healthy connection with your professors. You can indeed connect with experts via Online Assignment Help in Australia. Besides, you can also take advantage of attending classes daily. Your presence and behaviour help you to make a strong bond with your professor. Don’t make the situation more complex by doing silly things in your college. Make it more interesting and keep your stress low for your progress and healthy living.
Source Link:-
submitted by lucyzara012 to u/lucyzara012 [link] [comments]

2020.11.26 11:28 PogTheDruid I’m Glad Rebekah isn’t my best friend anymore

Fake names
I’ve been grinding my teeth from the stress and feel like if I write it all down it will help. Sorry for formatting in advance I’m on my phone.
Rebekah one my closet friend throughout high school, when high school ended Rebekah and I still made efforts to keep in contact regularly and visit each other after moving a state away (3hrs). The visits to me were more frequent as she’d visit every time her then partner and her were at a disagreement. She also liked coming for the nightlife and for the University experience since I was studying and lived around the corner from campus in my own rental with guest room.
Eventually I finished my studies, my past relationship split and family accident lead to me moving a state away in the opposite direction still 3hrs away from her to look after the relative. Life was great, she visited still, she split from her then partner and wanted a change I offered for her to move with me but she didn’t want to leave the hometown which is fair. I meet my then partner a few months passed and I wanted to move back to my previous state. I did and partner followed. Year passed we had a child, got engaged and now have been together nearly four years.
Throughout the years I’d regularly message my friend Rebekah and she’d hardly respond, but I kept messaging friendly because friendships are worth fighting for I thought. Shortly whilst I was pregnant she met her new partner and the message replies decreased so I slowed on sending the messages, she never wanted to visit and I was fine with that.
Her engagement happened, we went as invited, had a lovely time connecting and meeting the fiancé for the second time. She loved her gift and the time we were there. She asked me to be her maid of honour but between finances, time and my partners mental health diagnosis I had to politely decline. She accepted and I became her bridesmaid while Hannah became her MOH.
MOH organised three bachelorette parties, one a huge state away (12 hours drive) the price cost was insane. $2k aud for four nights , it included air fairies which pre covid sat around the $150 aud mark each way. So the rest was splitting the penthouse accommodation, drinks, activities, limo etc . I was honest as a stay at home mum that I did not have the financial ability to afford it or would I ask for the money of my working partner. I was at that point still in the bridal party but hardly received a message from anyone including Rebekah the bride when I messaged.
I messaged on off over the course and never received a reply.
The Accident Rebekah crashes her car on a busy road, I went to visit her when she asked and I asked what happened after asking if she was okay. She admitted to using her phone while driving, I was beyond disappointed hearing this as she freaked over the fact police at the investigation scene took her iPhone. I continued trying to be sympathetic as I listened to the story get worse. She injured four people, one severely and couldn’t tell me a month later how the injured old lady was recovering. She continued on to say how she was worried she’d loose her licence. I was shocked police hadn’t immediately taken it or mailed in a licence cancellation. She started worrying about loosing her work as she had to drive 20 mins to get there when public transport isn’t an option. I was speechless told her she was lucky not to go to jail, that she should be taking this more seriously and organising a lawyer because this would most likely go to court. To stop worrying about buying a car since hers was totalled, if she wanted to keep her job she’d have to sacrifice moving back in with her parents and riding a bicycle 5mins from their house. She didn’t like any of my opinions as they were not advice she wanted, she wanted to be told everything was going to be alright. I left shortly after.
Her parents pull funding for her wedding
Few weeks later My Sons 1st birthday , she said she was getting a lift from Chani to the state. They arrived early and told me they couldn’t stay long, I scrambled to order food they liked since food wouldn’t be ready, they practically ate food and the first guests started arriving and within 5 minutes said they had to leave. Walk them out. Rebekah is proud to show me her new 2020 (2019) model car , I sit in the back and she shows of its features. Looking around I’m speechless and let her keep talking, I ask about her licence and the court case. Court case is set for a few months and her licence is still valid and she doesn’t know why it never got suspended. The Nail in the coffin was Chani showing me a video from Snapchat of them driving and signing , the thing Rebekah caused the initial crash over and then Rebekah pans onto the camera making eye contact while driving through the city. I wished them a safe drive down and left the car. Went back inside partner saw my face and I said I’d explain later, party continued fine.
Few months I don’t reach out to Rebekah and she never reaches out to me, I have no idea what’s happening about the bridesmaid plans and I don’t care at this point. I message her saying that I wish to no longer be a bridesmaid and she relied within minutes with genuine happiness as if I was a inconvenience. She still wanted me to come to the wedding.
Her court date gets postponed for a second time
Weeks pass and the weddings approaching I get the worse case of para influenza being confirmed by my doctor and told to reset, not go into contact with anyone or especially attend the wedding. This was a few days before covid hit, covid hit and weddings started getting smaller and having told Rebekah I was too ill to attend, her response was short and disappointed. Her wedding was the last Saturday before all weddings stopped in Australia.
She pleads not guilty to all counts Her court date is postponed again to February 2021 She hadn’t messaged nor I, she removed from many social media’s except one where I kept her for mutual friends sake.
We’re organising my wedding for April 2021 , covid is pretty clear in Australia and we’re are lucky to be having a small ceremony . I invite three of my closest friends from high school and life , one asks about Rebekah not being invited. I’m honest and clear the friendship is no longer due to a factor of reasons especially the non communication.
Vindication my friend also says she and the other girls are sick of Rebekah over various reasons, including her whole reaction to the accident and her actions since.
I still have my girls who I talk to regularly, I may no longer have Rebekah but I have better and stronger relationships with my now Best friends K & L
I’m glad I have nothing left to do with Rebekah, and she’s lucky that she hasn’t yet gone to jail and I hope justice is served for those whom she hurt and affected while she’s lived the last year and the half facing no consequences.
submitted by PogTheDruid to offmychest [link] [comments]

2020.11.25 23:24 CatEyes420 How the Rothschilds took over the World (long but informative)

Amschel Moses Rothschild was born in about 1710. He was a German Jewish silk trader and money changer in the Judengasse (Jewstreet) in Frankfurt. Around 1743 he placed a red hexagram sign (which numerically and geometrically convert into the number 666) above the entrance of his door. His house was also red in color.
Within two centuries, the Rothschild, instructed this hexagram sign to be made part of the Israeli flag 🇮🇱. He had 8 children with Schönche Lechnich, one of his sons, Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744-1812), is the founder of the Rothschild banking dynasty. He marries Guttle SchnappeSchönche Lechnich (Rothschild) in 1770, and they have 10 children together.
Around 1760, Mayer Amschel Bauer worked for a bank owned by the Oppenheimer (are part of Rothschild family/married, had children together..). Mayer was very successful and became a junior partner, where he meets General von Estorff.
After Mayer Amschel Bauer’s father Moses Amschel Bauer died, Mayer changed his name from Bauer to Rothschild (Rot = red / Schild = sign).
Mayer Amschel Rothschild and his sons establish what was known as the Five Arrows of Banking. These golden arrows can be seen on the eagle’s talons visible on the coat of arms city from Frankfurt, Germany. It represented the 5 sons who managed the global banking Houses of the Rothschild which included:
• Frankfurt • London • Paris • Vienna • Napl 
Mayer discovers that General von Estorff is aquatinted with the court of Prince William IX, Landgrave of Hesse-Hanau (known today as Hesse-Kassel) (married?). The royal house of William obtained its’ wealth by the hiring out or exporting their soldiers to foreign countries for major profit.
Mayer began selling William IX rare trinkets, treasures, and coins at extra low prices. Eventually, as planned, Mayer is introduced to the Prince himself, who is delighted with the modified prices. Mayer even offers the prince a perk for any new business opportunities, William could direct his way. As a result, Mayer Amschel Rothschild and Prince William join forces and become business accomplices.
In 1769, Prince William grants Mayer approval to hang a sign on his business storefront declaring that he is, “M. A. Rothschild, by appointment court factor to his serene highness, Prince William of Hanau.”
In 1773, Amschel Mayer Rothschild is born, eventually he would take over the Frankfurt bank. He is the first of Mayer’s sons who will all eventually enter the family business at 12 years of age. He is followed by Salomon Mayer Rothschild, in 1774.
In 1776, Mayer Amschel Rothschild creates the Illuminati and hands over the organizations development to Adam Weishaupt. Weishaupt sneaks in the Continental Order of Freemasons with this Illuminati doctrine. This doctrine claims a new order for the human race under the dictatorship of Satan and his supporters. This view is accepted and spread like a wildfire and is pursued in Masonic Lodges worldwide to this day.
In 1777, Nathan Mayer Rothschild is born, who is followed by Kalmann (Carl) Mayer Rothschild/Carl Mayer Freiherr von Rothschild in 1788. Carl is the founder of the Rothschild banking family of Naples. He had child named Adolf Carl....
In 1791, Alexander Hamilton, (a Rothschild representative in George Washington’s cabinet) and the Rothschilds, infiltrated a central bank in the newly established United States colonies. This bank was know as the Bank of the United States and was organized with a 20 year charter.
“Jacob” or “James” Mayer de Rothschild or Baron de Rothschild is born in 1792. Originally named Jakob Mayer Rothschild. He is the youngest child of Mayer. He was a German-French banker and is the founder of the French banking branch of the Rothschild family. He had 5 children.
Amschel Mayer Rothschild marries Eva Hanau in 1796.
In 1798, Mayer, grants his son, Nathan Mayer Rothschild, a major sum of money, and sends him to England, to advance the family interests in importing textile. This allowed him to establish a bank in the City of London known as N. M. Rothschild & Sons.
In 1806, Prince William, escapes Germany and assigns his $3,000,000 fortune over to Mayer Amschel Rothschild for guardianship, because Napoleon made it his objective to abolish the rulership and influence of the house of Hess-Cassel.
Nathan Mayer also marries Rothschild Hannah Barent Cohen during this time.
In 1808, Nathan Mayer Rothschild has his first child, Lionel Nathan de Rothschild.
In 1810, Mayer entered into a formal partnership agreement with his three eldest sons. Abraham Goldsmid and Sir Francis Baring die, leaving Nathan Mayer Rothschild as the last major remaining banker in England.
Salomon Mayer Rothschild launches the bank, M. von Rothschild und Söhne in Vienna, Austria. And Calmann ("Carl") established the branch in Naples, Italy.
The youngest son Jacob, was sent to Paris in 1811, strengthening the family's ability to operate across Europe by opening the bank “de Rothschild Frères. This allowed them to profit by funding the Wellington's armies in Portugal, which required them to secure large quantities of gold in favor of the British government.
The charter established between the Rothschild and the Bank of the United States in 1791 runs out in 1811 and Congress decided to vote against its renewal.
Andrew Jackson (7th President of the U.S. from 1829 to 1837) stated, “If Congress has a right under the Constitution to issue paper money, it was given them to use by themselves, not to be delegated to individuals or corporations.”
Nathan Mayer Rothschild replied, “Either the application for renewal of the charter is granted, or the United States will find itself involved in a most disastrous war.”
In 1812, Britain, which was supported by the Rothschild empire, declared war on the United States. The Rothschilds systematically arranged this war to cause the United States to build up a major debt due to them defending themselves. Eventually, they would have to surrender which forced them to renew the charter for the Rothschild owned Bank of the United States.
Mayer Amschel Rothschild perishes. In his will, he establishes very specific rules that the Rothschild must obey:
• All major positions in the family business may only be held by family members; specifically only male members, which included a rumored sixth bastard son. (Mayer Amschel also had five daughters. Their Zionist empire also included mixed offspring of Jewish decent.) • In order to preserve their fortune they had to intermarry with their first and second cousins (16 of the 18 marriages between Mayers’ grandchildren were between first cousins). • No publication of their estates or inventory • no legal action was to be taken with respect to the value of their fortune • The oldest son of the oldest son was to become the head of the family, but this could be reversed if the bulk of the family decided otherwise. 
The $3,000,000 entrusted to Mayer by Prince William is accounted for in the Jewish Encyclopaedia, 1905 edition, Volume 10, page 494, which states, “According to legend this money was hidden away in wine casks, and, escaping the search of Napoleon’s soldiers when they entered Frankfurt, was restored intact in the same casks in 1814, when the elector (Prince William IX of Hesse-Hanau) returned to the electorate (Germany). The facts are somewhat less romantic, and more businesslike.”
The money was never truly “returned” by Rothschild to Prince William, instead their families married each other for business purposes, to keep the money hidden and allowing both families to gain and grow the empire. The encyclopaedia also states, “Nathan Mayer Rothschild invested this $3,000,000 in, gold from the East India Company knowing that it would be needed for Wellington’s peninsula campaign.” The Rothschilds made, “no less than four profits: 1. i) On the sale of Wellington’s paper which he bought at 50 cents on the dollar and collected at par; 2. ii) on the sale of gold to Wellington; 3. iii) on its repurchase; and 4. iv) on forwarding it to Portugal.”
In 1815, the Rothschild brothers started their policy of financing both sides of the wars by the suppling them with gold Wellington’s army (Nathan in England) and Napoleon’s army (Jacob in France).
Since these brothers had banks spread out across Europe, it allowed them to set up an unmatched postal service grid of secret routes and couriers allowing them to be one step ahead of the crowd.
These couriers were the only ones allowed to pass through the French and English blockades, which then reported back to Nathan and kept him up to date with how the war was going allowing him to buy/sell stock successfully.
When the war ended and the British defeated Napoleon, Nathan, through past strategic planning made a return of 20:1 on his investments, which gave the Rothschilds complete control over the British economy forcing England to establish a different Bank of England, which Nathan controlled. He would later state,
“I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply.”
The newly established Bank of England controlled by the Rothschilds changed their approach of shipping gold to different countries by using their five banks across Europe to set up a banking system of paper credits and, which is still used today.
In 1816, the Rothschild’s charter for the Bank of the United States was renewed for twenty more years giving the Rothschilds full control of the American money supply once again.
After the French’s defeat at Waterloo, the French attained major loans in 1817 to rebuild themselves.
In 1818, the Rothschilds, bought large amounts of French government bonds allowing them to take control of the French money supply. They also loaned the Prussian government £5,000,000.
In the year 1821, Kalmann (Carl Mayer Rothschild), was sent to Naples, Italy. There he conducted many business deals with Pope Gregory XVI and the Vatican, eventually coming up with the Order of St. George.
By 1823, the Rothschild empire has gained complete financial control over the Catholic Church operations, globally.
In 1827, Sir Walter Scott, published a nine volume set book series. In volume two he writes that the French Revolution was prepared by Adam Weishaipt’s Illuminati and funded by the Rothschilds’ European banking empire.
In 1835, the 7th president of the United States, Andrew Jackson, began placing the federal funds into banks managed by democratic bankers instead of the Rothschild governed Bank of the United States.
This lead to an assassination attempt being made on President Jackson, who would later declare that he knew the Rothschilds were at fault for the assassination attempt.
The Rothschilds gained ownership over the Almadén quicksilver mines in Spain. This was important, because quicksilver was a critical factor in the refining of gold or silver. This established a basic world monopoly for the Rothschild banking empire.
Nathan Mayer Rothschild dies in 1836. and his bank, N. M. Rothschild & Sons is taken over by his younger brother, James Mayer Rothschild.
In the year 1837, President Andrew Jackson succeeds in overthrowing the Rothschild controlled Bank of America. It wouldn’t be until the year 1913 that the Rothschilds could reestablish their third central bank in America, the (illegal) Federal Reserve.
In 1838, Amschel Mayer Rothschild declares, “Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws.”
In 1840, the Rothschilds become stock brokers of the Bank of England. This allows them to set up agencies in Australia and California.
In 1844, Salomon Mayer Rothschild, buys the United Coal Mines of Vítkovice and a Hungarian Blast Furnace Company.
Jacob (James) Mayer Rothschild/Baron James de Rothschild, married his niece, Betty, who is the daughter of his brother Salomon Mayer Rothschild. James wins a deal allowing him to assemble the first major railroad line called the Chemin De Fer Du Nord, which ran from Paris to Valenciennes. Eventually this railway would join together with the Austrian rail-system built by his brother Salomon Mayer Rothschild.
In 1858, Lionel De Rothschild takes his seat in the British parliament making him the first Jewish member.
In 1861, the 16th President of the United States, Abraham Lincoln (1860-1865) secures loans through the Rothschilds to fund the American civil war via Charters, but these loans came at high interest rates (between 24% -36%).
So, Lincoln decided to print his own money, which was debt free and could be legally used in private and public debts/affairs. By April 1862, $449,338,902 of the debt free money Lincoln created was distributed.
In 1863, Italy, unifies causing the (Carl) Rothschild bank in Naples, Italy, to close. So the Rothschilds decided they would use their American assistant, John D. Rockefeller, to help establish an oil business also known as Standard Oil, who became the leader in the industry.
Alexander II (1855 – 1881), Tsar of Russia, also had issues with the Rothschilds, because he refused to let them set up a central bank in Russia. In 1864, Abraham Lincoln discovers this feud and request Tsar to help fund the Civil War. Tsar agrees and sends part of his navy to the coast of New York and California. Allowing Lincoln to win the Civil War.
In 1865, President Lincoln states in a statement to Congress, “I have two great enemies, the Southern Army in front of me, and the financial institution in the rear. Of the two, the one in my rear is my greatest foe.”
President Lincoln is assassinated later that year (1865).
Otto von Bismarck states in 1876, “The division of the United States into two federations of equal force was decided long before the civil war by the high financial power of Europe.These bankers were afraid that the United States, if they remained in one block and as one nation, would attain economical and financial independence, which would upset their financial domination over the world. The voice of the Rothschilds predominated. They foresaw the tremendous booty if they could substitute two feeble democracies, indebted to the financiers, to the vigorous Republic, confident and self-providing. Therefore they started their emissaries in order to exploit the question of slavery and thus dig an abyss between the two parts of the Republic.”
The 20th President of the United States, James A. Garfield (lasted only 100 Days) stated two weeks before he was assassinated in 1881, “Whoever controls the volume of money in our country is absolute master of all industry and commerce…and when you realize that the entire system is very easily controlled, one way or another, by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate.”
Edmond James de Rothschild has a son named Maurice de Rothschild. (Adolf Hitler is really Maurice de Rothschild with fake beard and hair piece and carries out his father’s (Baron Abraham Edmond Benjamin James de Rothschild 1845 –1934) work. Since the war caused a sugar shortage, Maurice would have also been the candy man aka Willy Wanka and his top hat 🎩 and cain in his photos match the part).
In 1886, The French Rothschild bank, de Rothschild Frères, gains the Russian oil fields and establishes the Caspian and Black Sea Petroleum Company, which eventually becomes second largest global oil producer.
The Rothschilds become the biggest shareholder of the De Beers company in 1887, which included mining valuable stones in India and Africa. They achieved this by financing the South Africa’s Kimberley diamond mines.
Maurice de Rothschild’s future wife, Noémie Halphen, is born in 1888.
Around 1891, the Rothschilds they purchased the Reuters news agency, to gain control of the media.
In 1895, Edmond James de Rothschild visits Palestine and begins helping fund the first Jewish colonies located there.
In 1897, The Rothschilds organize their first meeting with the Zionist Congress in Munich. However, this meeting was re-arranged to take place in Basle, Switzerland on Aug. 29th, due to Jewish resistance. This meeting is supervised by Theodor Herzl, who would declare in his diaries, “It is essential that the sufferings of Jews….become worse….this will assist in realization of our plans….I have an excellent idea….I shall induce anti-Semites to liquidate Jewish wealth….The anti-Semites will assist us thereby in that they will strengthen the persecution and oppression of Jews. The anti-Semites shall be our best friends.”
Herzl was elected to be the President of the Zionist Organization. The Zionist society adopted the Red Rothschild Hexagram Sign that Amschel Moses Rothschild placed on his house on Judengasse (Jewstreet), on their Zionist flag. This hexagram sign would end up on the flag of Israel 🇮🇱 51 years later.
The Rothschilds help fund Edward Henry Harriman. This allowed him to become the director of the Union Pacific Railroad which would eventually also gain control of the Southern Pacific Railroad.
In 1901 the Jewish colonies established by Edmond James de Rothschild in Palestine. They send him a delegation which states, “If you wish to save the Yishuv (The Jewish colonies) first take your hands from it, and…for once permit the colonists to have the possibility of correcting for themselves what needs correcting.”
Edmond James de Rothschild does not react very well to these news and states, “I created the Yishuv, I alone. Therefore no men, neither colonists nor organisations have the right to interfere in my plans.”
The M. A. von Rothschild und Söhne banking house in Frankfurt, Deutschland 🇩🇪, closes because there was no male Rothschild heir to take over the bank.
The Jewish Encyclopaedia (Vol. 2, p.497) states, “It is a somewhat curious sequel to the attempt to set up a Catholic competitor to the Rothschilds that at the present time the latter are the guardians of the papal treasure.”
In 1906, the Rothschilds insisted that the land was experiencing increased instability, while the Rockefellers were simultaneously becoming a rising competition. This was a lie, because in reality, the Rockefellers were the offspring of the Rothschilds through a female lineage. They owned Standard Oil, which is why they sold their Caspian Black Sea and Caspian Petroleum to Shell and Royal Dutch.
John F. Hylan, then mayor of New York, states in 1911, “The real menace of our republic is the invisible government which, like a giant octopus, sprawls its slimy length over our city, state and nation. At the head is a small group of banking houses, generally referred to as international bankers.”
George R. Conroy talks about the Rothschild banker Jacob Schiff in the December 1912 issue of, “Truth,” magazine, and states, “Mr Schiff is head of the great private banking house of Kuhn, Loeb, and co, which represents the Rothschilds interests on this side of the Atlantic. He has been described as financial strategist and has been for years the financial minister of the great impersonal power known as Standard Oil. He was hand in glove with the Harrimans, the Goulds, and the Rockefellers in all their railroad enterprises and has become the dominant power in the railroad and financial power of America.”
The Anti Defamation League (ADL) is established in the United States by the Rothschilds in 1913, which labeled anyone who challenged the Global Elite as “anti-Semitic.” This is also the year that they founded their last central bank which still exists today, the Federal Reserve.
After the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was passed/singed into law on December 23, by the 28th President of the United States, Woodrow Wilson, which created the Federal Reserve Banking System, Congressman Charles Lindbergh, stated, “The Act establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President signs this Bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized…….The greatest crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill.”
The Federal Reserve System is a private Organization also known as a charity and is Illegal!!! They also do not publish their accounts*
By the year 1914 the Rothschilds have gained control of multiple European media agencies, which included, Havas (est. 1835) in France, Wolff (est. 1849) in Germany, and Reuters (est. 1851) in England. Wolff News company was used to systematically shape German individuals into believing war the way to go. Since the Rothschilds owned the media now, they were seldomly reported on.
Since, Tsar Alexander II choose to side with President Lincoln in the Cvil War in 1864, he and his whole family in Russia were executed in 1917 by an order of the Rothschilds. They kill the entire family to show the world what happens when you try to cross them.
In 1919, Baron Edmond de Rothschild, the boss, hosted the Versailles peace convention, which meets after the end of World War I to determine what must be repaid by the Germans to the victors. In this conference, it is also officially declared that Israel would be considered a Jewish homeland. Control of Palestine was handed to Britain, which the Rothschilds ruled.
The Times of London report on March 29th on the Bolsheviks in Russia stating, “One of the curious features of the Bolshevist movement is the high percentage of non Russian elements among its leaders. Of the twenty or thirty commissaries, or leaders, who provide the central machinery of the Bolshevist movement, not less than 75% were Jews.”
The Rothschilds were not happy with the Russians because they did not want them to establish their own central bank within their community. So they hired Jewish agents to spy on Russia and plant seeds in the heads of the Russian community about a revolution that would assist the common man by promoting rebellion through riots. The Rothschilds strategically set this up to conquer Russia, so they could establish their own bank there.
The International Edition of the Jewish Post (January 1991)verifies that Vladimir Lenin was Jewish and was caught on record declaring, “The establishment of a central bank is 90% of communizing a nation.”
These Jewish Bolsheviks, funded by the Rothschild would end up would end up slaughtering 60 million Non-Jews and Christians in a Soviet controlled region.
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, an author, confirms in his writings, “Gulag Archipelago, Vol 2,” that the Zionist Jews planned and executed the Soviet concentration camp structure. Where millions of Non-Jews and Christians died. On page 79 of his book he mentions the names of the leaders who were behind these camps. This included the Zionist Jews, Yakov Rappoport, Aron Solts, Naftaly Frenkel, Lazar Kogan, Genrikh Yagoda, and Matvei Berman.
The role of adjusting the daily global gold prices is permanently handed over to M. Rothschild & Sons’. Every day around 1100 hours this change took place in the City of London offices, in the same room, until 2004.
N. M. Rothschild & Sons banking house invests in the Underground Electric Railways Company of London Ltd in 1926 giving them total control of the London railway transport system.
Maurice de Rothschild son, Edmond de Rothschild is also born in 1926.
By 1933, the Rothschilds controlled the supply machines of IBM, which produced punch cards (used to input data into the first computers), which allowed the Nazis to organize and identify the Jewish individuals and kept track of their confiscated property and eventual extermination.
The Swiss bank secrecy laws are altered in 1934, making it a violation for any bank employee to breach the bank secrecy. This was arranged by the Rothschilds to prepare for World War II, where again, they would back both sides.
The Austrian bank in Vienna, S. M. von Rothschild und Söhne, closed in 1938 after the Nazi settlement of Austria.
The biggest producer of steel Germany and preeminent manufacturer of chemicals for the world was a company called, I.G. Farben, who in 1939, suddenly ramped up its production in order to equip Germany for World War II. The Rothschilds controlled I.G. Farben, who also produced the Zyklon B gas used to exterminate the Jewish population. The Rothschilds also used the Jews and other people in the concentration camps for slave labor.
World War II begins in 1939.
The book, “Inside The Gestapo,” written by Hansjurgen Koehler in 1940, mentions Adolf Hitler’s grandmother, Maria Anna Schicklgruber, and states, “A little servant girl…….came to Vienna and became a domestic servant…….at the Rothschild mansion…….and Hitler’s unknown grandfather must be probably looked for in this magnificent house.”
In Walter Langer book, “The Mind Of Hitler,” he supports this statement by writing, “Adolf’s father, Alois Hitler, was the illegitimate son of Maria Anna Schicklgruber…….Maria Anna Schicklgruber was living in Vienna at the time she conceived. At that time she was employed as a servant in the home of Baron Rothschild. As soon as the family discovered her pregnancy she was sent back home…….where Alois was born.”
Prescott Bush was the father of George Herbert Walker Bush and the grandfather of George W. Bush, both future presidents. He helped finance Hitler from America. Due to his funding, his organization was seized in the, “Trading With The Enemy Act of 1942.”
World War II ends in 1945. It is also noted that the I.G. Farben companies only sustained 15% damage, concluding that they were not a target in the bombing of Germany. Any information connecting Western aid to Hitler is censored through the Nazi War Crimes investigation held at the end of World War II by the tribunals.
In Spring of 1948, the 33rd President of the United States Harry S. Truman (1945 – 1953) is bribed with $2,000,000 by the Rothschilds to acknowledge Israel (Rothschild owned) as a Jewish sovereign state in Palestine. The United States is the first nation to recognize it and the new flag is soon revealed. The new Israel flag depicted a blue hexagram on it, which was exactly like the red Rothschild hexagram, found on Amschel Moses Rothschild’s doorstep.
The Jewish knew the hexagram represented the “Moloch,” which was the biblical name of a Canaanite god relating to child sacrifice, by means of fire or war. The stone owl located at the Bohemian Grove worshipped by the elite is also named Moloch and Astaroth (Lord Treasurer of Hell). The hexagram also symbolized Saturn, which has been identified as the mystical name for “Satan.” This would mean that anyone murdered in the name of Israel was in reality an offering to Satan.
In 1953, the British Newfoundland Corporation Ltd was founded by N. M. Rothschild & Sons of London. They build a power plant to harness the electricity of the Hamilton (renamed Churchill) Falls (waterfall) on 60,000 square miles of terrain in Newfoundland, Canada.
Edmond de Rothschild established Compagnie Financiere, Paris, in 1955.
In the year 1962, the French banking house, de Rothschild Frères, founded Imétal, a shade company for all their mineral excavating shares.
A book called, “The Rothschilds”, written by Frederic Morton writes, “Though they control scores of industrial, commercial, mining and tourist corporations, not one bears the name Rothschild. Being private partnerships, the family houses never need to, and never do, publish a single public balance sheet, or any other report of their financial condition.”
This statement showcases the true mission of the Rothschilds. It was their objective to eradicate all competition and establish their own global monopoly.
On July 4th 1962, the 35th President of the United States, John F. Kennedy, held a speech at Independence Hall, in which he mocked the Declaration of Independence and states that the Constitution, “stressed not Independence but Interdependence.”
On June 4th 1963, the 35th President of the United States, John F. Kennedy, issues the Executive Order 11110, which returned the power to distribute currency back to the U.S. government, without having to go through the Federal Reserve possessed by the Rothschilds.
On November 22nd 1963, Kennedy was shot by the Rothschilds. Kennedy’s motive was to distribute and print American currency for the American people. Abraham Lincoln was assassinated for the same reason in 1865 by the Rothschilds.
The 37th President of the United States, Lyndon Baines Johnson, declares the Executive Order 11110 as void, the same day that Kennedy was killed.
La Compagnie Financière Edmond de Rothschild (LCF), in Switzerland, an investment bank with many associates is established by Edmond de Rothschild. Today, this bank is known as the Swiss Bank. Edmond marries Nadine and have a son together named, Benjamin de Rothschild.
In 1973, Gary Allen, wrote a book called, None Dare Call It Conspiracy, which states, “One major reason for the historical blackout on the role of the international bankers in political history is the Rothschilds were Jewish… ….The Jewish members of the conspiracy have used an organisation called The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) as an instrument to try and convince everyone that any mention of the Rothschilds and their allies is an attack on all Jews. In this way they have stifled almost all honest scholarship on international bankers and made the subject taboo within universities. Any individual or book exploring this subject is immediately attacked by hundreds of ADL communities all over the country. The ADL has never let the truth or logic interfere with its highly professional smear jobs… ….Actually, nobody has a right to be more angry at the Rothschild clique than their fellow Jews… ….The Rothschild empire helped finance Adolf Hitler.”
IBM was controlled by the Rothschilds through their employee, George J. Laurer. IBM creates the UPC (Universal Product Code) barcode, which is placed upon every product traded worldwide. IBM’s UPC barcode bears the mark of the beast, 666. Everything bought or sold is therefore the mark of the beast.
The Book of Revelation 13:17 says, “No man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.”
The Churchill Falls power plant in Newfoundland, Canada, is finished. N. M. Rothschild & Sons of London, adds an asset management company, called the Rothschild Private Management Limited, which traded globally. Today this company is know as Rothschild & Co.
In 1980, global privatization starts due to the Rothschilds plan to eventually seize power of all publicly held assets.
In 1981, a new bank called, Compagnie Européenne de Banque is established in France. The successor to this bank is Rothschild & Cie Banque (RCB), which eventually becomes a leading French investment company.
Eustace Mullins writes in 1985, “Who Owns The TV Networks,“ where he discloses that the Rothschilds control of the three dominant U.S. Networks at the time: NBC; CBS; and ABC.
Edmond de Rothschild sets up the World Conservation Bank in 1987, which transferred debts from third world countries into his bank. This allowed the Rothschilds to gain land as a return from these countries. The Rothschilds systematically designed this system to gain control of the third world countries, which were about 30% of the land on Earth.
The French and British Rothschilds declare in 1989, the launch of a new branch called, Rothschild GmbH, located in Frankfurt, Germany.
Former Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Paul A. Volker becomes the new Chairman of the banking firm, J. Rothschild, Wolfensohn and Co. in Europe in March 1992.
In 1995, Dr Kitty Little, a past atomic energy scientist, stated that the Rothschilds now possessed 80% of the uranium supplies globally, creating their nuclear power monopoly.
The European Central Bank is established in 1998 and is located in Frankfurt, Germany.
George W. Bush, becomes the 43rd President of the United States in the year 2000. Bush and his family declare they are the ancestors of the House of Plantagenet, whose linage stems from the Royal House of Judah.
The September 11th attack of the Twin Towers was arranged by the United States, Britain, and Israel, through an order received from the Rothschilds. It was their goal to gain security and control over the world, while simultaneously eliminating the liberty of people globally. The Rothschild’s terrorist attack allowed them to gain power over nations who refused to build a central Rothschild bank. One of these 7 nations was Afghanistan, (at the time a nation without R. Bank, but 9/11 changed this.)
They also will use the attacks to gain control of the few nations in the world who don’t allow Rothschild central banks and so less than one month after these attacks, US forces attack Afghanistan, one of only 7 nations in the world who don’t have a Rothschild controlled central bank.
A week before the twin tower attack, the Zim Shipping Company, located in the World Trade Centers, break their lease and leave behind their work station. No explanation has been given, but it is know that the Zim Shipping Company is half owned by the State of Israel, which is owned by The Rothschilds.
In the year 2003, Iraq (Ancient Babylon), is one of the last six nations left that who don’t have a central bank owned by the Rothschilds. The war in Iraq was mostly about robbing their water sources for Israel. Israel has always struggled for water. Water is rare in Israel, so to them water is far more valuable than the oil reserves, which happen to be the second largest oil reserves on the globe.
In 2006, the Edmond De Rothschild Banque a secondary branch of the Edmond De Rothschild bank in France, is the first foreign bank to acquire authorization of the China to enter China’s economic market.
submitted by CatEyes420 to conspiracy [link] [comments]

2020.11.25 11:18 iamgodandashamed I drink a lot

I was born in 1968

At first it may be because of a failed relationship with a neighbour because she hooked
up with my brother. On that what sort of person does that, seriously. I wasn't ready for
that. I have decided not to swear on here. I will also not give away names or businesses.
They could possibly work it out but I won't name anyone. I just want to tell my story.
Later it became more of I just want to forget. And sleep. I can't kill myself or hurt

Some more reasons are that I was bullied throughout my life. My stepfather abused me. My
real dad was an alcoholic. My mother was controlling from my 20's. When I met the
neighbour I was 21. My Mother kicked both my brother and I out if we didn't stop seeing
the neighbour. But then again the neighbour was a waste of space. Around the late 2000's
my mum actually wrote me a letter to say stop seeing a mutual friend.

Some local kids decided to throw condoms with water inside them because I was friends
with a gay guy. I knew he was gay. So what. But local kids thought it was wrong. They
were homophobic. I could really get them into trouble now with that. But why bother. I
really just drink so I will die soon hopefully. I have lost all hope for humanity.
They threw them at my car.

Anyways, after my abuse I still didn't work out my sexuality until probably 1994/1995.
I am not sure.

My father was an alcoholic and lost the family business early on in my life. My mum and
dad separated when I was 5. I remember little about my early childhood. Mainly things at
school. One home incident really stuck out early. I have a scar above my eye because a
steel ladder hit it. 5 stitches.

I am pretty sure my dad use to abuse my mum and gave us all the belt at one point. My
oldest brother acted out a lot and left when he was 16 I think.

After my parents separated I would visit my mum on weekends and holidays and see my
stepfather and his kids. Then in 1975 my mum and stepfather moved to another state.
Starting in December, 1978, I visited my mum and stepfather in the holidays staying
about 5 weeks. This happened in 1978,79,80,81. In June 1982 my dad had the accident and
I stayed with my mum for about 3 months.

Another incident was a German Shepard ( named that way at the time) attacked me when I
was walking home and I got some bad scratches and a lifetime fear of dogs. Found out
later the dog attacked someone else and was shot dead.

I am one of three brothers. The oldest is now dead from a heart attack but was an
alcoholic. Around April he started drinking heavily and was told not to drink again.
The second oldest now has cancer but was born with brain damage. He was the
brother that the neighbour dumped me for him. ( again yea who does that?) Me. I am an
alcoholic and had been abused, bullied, cheated on, lost a son to a girl who cheated on
me. Yea so life is great hey.

I worked out my sexuality in 1994? Maybe. Well in 2000 I moved to a big city and started
driving a taxi. I left a winery because the lead hand wouldn't stop pushing his ideas on
me. One of my last conversations to him was that I would kill him and bury him. I think
I got the point across.

In 1978, I had a weird conversation with my stepsister. She asked me how I masturbated.
I didn't at that point. 2 years later after my mum and stepfather met another couple,
some of my abuse started. Yes it was sexual. I can't say I was forced. I wanted to do
it. I know that doesn't make it right. Its just what happened. With one of the sons of
the other family some things happened. We visited a nudist camp and nudist beach. The
other family had 6 children. They were a blended family. The oldest was about 16. The 2
stepsisters were a year older then me. The 2 stepbrother's were my age. There was a
younger girl. About 3 years younger. In 1982 I had extra relations with the other
brother and both stepsisters. We were all about 14 and 15 when this happened.

Actually in 1982, my father had a bad accident. He was going to buy a bottle of sherry
from a pub. Apparently he said he did a u-turn and hit a tree.
Actually he hit the tree at speed. He claimed someone ran him off the road.
He hit that tree with such force that the car, a ht panel van, had a rounded dent in the
front that it was amazing he was still alive. He had broken ribs, broken legs, and
troubles with eating and other things. He couldn't walk properly afterwards. When I saw
him in hospital I fainted. It was horrific. So I went to live with my mom. When he
recovered I went back to him. He continued to drink. We moved from one city to a town
then to a beach town. At this point I was experimenting with wearing women's clothes.
And in the beach town I continued with meeting men.

In 1984 my father died. He couldn't eat properly. And still drank. I started stealing
things from 1982 and ended up spending 3 months in a detention centre in 1983 ( I think)
then had probation until age 18. When I left the centre I again run away but my children
services officer found me. Anyways. I stopped acting out and lost my father.

In 1981, I was in a school in grade 8 in a high school that I knew nearly everyone in
the school. 1982 year 9 I did it then had to continue year 9 in another school where I
was bullied. 1983 I had to repeat year 9 but when I was sentenced to 3 months prison
after stealing bicycles, a boat and tried to steel a car and succeeded in stealing my
dad's car and drove to a big city, my dad took me to the police. In the police interviews
they first tried to pin a lot of stuff on me and i played along until i got sick of the
righteous cop who thought i was some sort of crime wave. I wanted to leave school. One
of the best things I made friends with the strongest guy in that place. Funny thing I
remember when a yacht won for a small country. And a song about still standing. I made
a coffee table too.

After my father's funeral me and the second oldest brother returned to my mother's and
stepfather's place. A caravan with all of my toys and coffee table, my brother's models
and telescopes and clothes was stolen as well as school photos. The caravan was recovered
but nothing else. Who steals photos and toys?

2 incidents that happened about 8 years apart in 2 different states really affected me
badly. The day after my birthday in 1986 I picked up my car from the pub, saw some
friends, then drove home when I got to my turn I saw some police cars and an ambulance
and a car that looked like it was sideswiped. Turns out the driver who was killed was a
local popular girl and was pushing her car after running out of fuel. The drunk driver
lost his licence and not much else. I reckon he should have been locked up for murder.
Another 8 years or so in another state a local kid hopped into his classic car and headed
into town but a big 4wd driven by another drunk driver was headed towards him and
collided and killed him. The drunk driver got a slap on the hand. He, too should have
been put in jail for murder. 2 more wastes of spaces.

I want to tell my story to everyone for free. I don't want money. I am a unemployed carer
for my brother who has cancer. If anyone wants to donate, donate to a worthy cause of
your choosing.

In year 7 the teacher's kid was in his class and because of that I got the cane for
several times. Of course I would like to find that kid now and whip him but he is another
waste of space.

The principal was also a waste of space and at one time kept us all on the parade ground
where someone fainted from the heat. À girl at the school who I liked lied that she
liked me but was joking. I did see her again in 1989 maybe. The third bf of the
neighbour punched me because I started stalking her, oh yes I did stalk her but again
who the hell hooks up with my brother after dumping me.

That couple later was arrested for drugs and later left the area. A local drunk who
abused me for the following and stalking ended up getting run over and died. I thought
at least one waste of space is now dead.

A stupid idiot died. Good.

There were some great experiences from my childhood. Like a cat that was blind that I
called pinky. She was a white albino cat. She was probably blind.
She was the greatest pet I ever had. She had a litter in my dad's doctor's case. She
once followed me all the way to the local shop ( about 4 kms) and back but I had to
carry her the last few hundred yards. But as all great things it ended with tragedy. I
came home from school and couldn't find her. My dad said he found her after being
attacked by dogs, her back broken he had to put her out of her misery. I have never
since had a pet like her. I don't know what happened to the dogs, but another
reason I hate dogs.

Put it this way. If I had a gun and a dog walked up to me I would pull the trigger.

On my stepfather. Yes he abused me and another kid. His reputation could be ruined by
this. His paintings are hanging in a council office and a park is named after him. If
anyone thinks they should be changed then I will get that done. If not I will leave it.
My stepfather passed away in 2005 from a heart attack because he still smoked.

My mother was controlling. I think in the early 2000's I told my mum and stepfather
about a girl I was interested in. That didn't work out. I never told them any other
relationship again. I think I picked younger girls because I missed out on girls from
21 to 33. I met many girls from 2001 to 2019. Most were younger. Only one was older.
But they were always of legal age. I could never be an abuser. And I couldn't be with
a married woman either.

Some of the first girls were Aussie, but I soon moved to Asian ladies, even marrying a
Vietnamese girl so she could stay in Australia. It failed though cause she was too busy
making money as a hooker. She claimed she was a stripper but she would bring guys back
to the house. In 2010 I changed to mostly African girls. My last lady friend was

A "gf" in 2017 to 2018 who I had a baby with who was still born because of her not
telling me that her water had broken. She also cheated on me. I don't know when it
started. Soon after leaving a job where I was bullied and treated like rubbish a guy
came to the house and she hoped I wasn't home. After some distinctive noises I did
leave. She wanted to have a second baby but after finding out she cheated I didn't want
to have another kid with her. Soon after we left the house and I went back to living in
my car.

Living in my car. Pretty sure I did this from December 2009. Anytime I had work in big
city. At one point I joined a gym so I could shower. Other times I went to swimming
pools. Later I found a truck service station that wouldn't mind who used the showers
as long as you bought something.  Actually some great meals and people at the
place. I couldn't really afford it but at least I wasn't paying rent.

Yes I am an alcoholic. I won't stop. I want to die. I am ashamed. If anyone wants to
stop me guess you will have to lock me up. In the world we have a megalomaniac who
wants to rule the world. We have minorities who are continually dying in custody. If
even one person doesn't do anything then nothing changes.

Met a lovely person in 2011. Things ended in 2012 when I left a Job to be with her. Job
later folded. Owners were another waste of space. But I loved this person. I know it
wouldn't have worked though. I was too old. If I had met her in, oh that wouldn't work
out. Let's just say if I was 20 years younger it would have been better.

I can only think of one woman who was my perfect match but that didn't work out. Or if
we were born in different times.

Pretty sure that I will never find true love or another job.

Thanks to the federal government for forgetting unemployed people over 35. Thanks
for one state government for blaming another government for closing state boarders
then recording more infections. And thanks to a waste of space.

Pandemic. Look at the numbers. One country has the most. This country never took
proper precautions. Their leader is another waste of space.

My new catch phrase. Another waste of space.

Jobs I left. 2 times at the winery. Firstly one couple couldn't work fast enough. I
know I am slow but this couple was retarded. Second time was because of that leading
hand. Driving taxis I just moved depots when I moved houses. In 2002 I worked for a guy
to deliver junk mail. He was another waste of space. I lived with him and his gf ( being
a friend of mine) I woke up one night to his swearing, actually turning out to be a
reminder to my dad.

I worked for a depot in 2008-09, because the mechanic thought it was funny to trap me
in the window. Guess what another waste of space.

I worked for a depot where the owner was a waste of space.

A dealership I worked for where I was bullied and that. Well everyone there was a waste
of space.

Oh yea bonus material. A girl and a cop tried to frame me for hitting her car. She
actually reversed into me. Her and parents ran a shop with adult videos and drugs. The
cop was involved. Anyways later on I heard he tried to pick up another girl and got his
brains blown out.

In that place before we moved I could get anything I wanted. For instance I could buy
a gun.

So should I keep drinking.

I also ran a few businesses of my own. And even one on an app. Again probably making
less then $10 an hour. More wastes of spaces.

Talk about slave labour. Even in this country they still want people to pick fruit
and be paid for weight. Again another waste of space.

From October 2018, after I left that house I would work up to 8 days then drive up to
the little country town and buy and cook dinner for my brother. Sometime in September
2019 I noticed my brother had a lump on his neck. He said he had it for awhile. I got
him to see a doctor and when he did she referred him to a ct scan. Then he referred to
an oncologist. He was diagnosed with incurable cancer.

Mum passed away in 2013 from cancer.

I moved all my stuff up to the house to care for my brother at the end of September.
Cook and shop and stuff. Drive him to his appointments. We have visited another town
which is 100kms away 26 times. My brother has had all of his treatments and all is good
for now.

I will no longer risk my brothers life now. I won't be meeting anyone for years.

Now to this year. I have almost paid off a big debt. Started in 1994/1995 with a
bankcard. Up to $13000. Paid it off in 2012 after my ute got written off. But then
made it again after the move to be with that girl. This year I also got the remainder
of me super. ( a stupid idea. Why not have your money now). Anyways bought some gadgets,
paid off debt and may have a road bike end of this year.

My body isn't too good. I am overweight and have high blood pressure. I had also
started smoking when I was 15 then gave up when I was 23. So at a later date I may
develop cancer as well. Do I want to know. Part of me does and my doctor has suggested
I find out via an x-ray. Part of me does not. We all die. I have now reached out to
see a psychologist to talk to someone about my mental health and life. But I also want
to tell my life story to my family, some day.

I stopped drinking the other day will now take it one day at a time. I know I have to be
here for my brother. After that I don't know.

Now my sleeping pattern is all over the place. Wake up at midnight after a few hours
sleep. Fall asleep around midday sleep til 8 pm. Then it changes again. Last night fell
asleep around 9pm and woke up at 4am. I hope it is all good now. Was thinking of drinking
again to make my sleep right but didn't.

We did have a memorial for my stillborn son and I named him after my stepfather. I don't
know why but it was the first name that came to mind. He is buried at a cemetery that I
have never visited. As far as I know there is no plaque. I will reach out to the cemetery
to find out if he has one.

I heard some wonderful news on sunday. I am drinking now. I am celebrating. I am an alcoholic.
In 2012 I stopped drinking for a few years. A few weeks ago I stopped drinking for a bit but
started again. I don't care if it kills me. A ducking dunt is still not gone from the usa
He should be removed.

Finally some good news. The ducking dunt didn't get enough votes. Now if he doesn't leave he
can be removed by the secret service. You will be able to guess who he is. I think he is
insane. My country is trying to get the country responsible for the pandemic to face some
sort of charges. That country has told my country to really think about what they are doing.
Probably a good idea not to pick on a very large country in terms of population.

Some things did happen in 1979. with that other family we did visit a nudist beach. In 1980
the other family purchased my stepfather's mothers' house after her passing. Then after
that we would visit the nudist camps. I cant remember much else that happened in 1979. At
one point some time early on i saw both my stepfather and mother naked. Probably was in
1978 now that I think of it the night I saw them was the same night my stepsister asked me
about how I masturbate.

I have found out where my son is buried. I checked some records from a council and found
out where he is and asked the council if he had a plaque. He doesn't so I am visiting the
cemetery soon and will get a plaque for him as soon as I can. He was light skin but still
be a person of colour if he lived, with all of the rascism that is still abundant in my
country. White people just don't know what it is like to be treated differently because
of the colour of your skin.

I had deleted some of these paragraphs but decided to reuse them. I dont want the world
to end. I just want my world to end.

My mum sent me a letter sometime in 1996 about my father having been abusive to her.
That's why she left him. I ran away to a big city for a year.

Going to get a gew more gadgets like a video camera to film my story to put up on
youtube using narrator to tell it. This is my life now. drinking to sleep and trying to
forget my life. I could of course stop drinking but where's the fun in that. I dont want
to live forever. I think the world will end soon. We have many countries that want to
start world war 3. Luckily the reign of a dictator has been ended. But i dont put it
past his stupid chrildren trying the same thing. I think the best solution is to kill
him and his entire family. That would save the world. But then again there is 7.8
billion people on earth. So why not end human life.

Actually I think all of the human races' problems are because of politicians. Lets
get rid of politicans if you want the human race to survive another 1000 years.

We have many websites where people scam other people, troll other people and
bascially treat other people very terribly. Why cant we stop these people. How
about get rid of the internet. It is not working. Many other things throughout
history has killed many people. Cigarettes, Alcohol, Coal, Oil and more that
without the world would be better off. There has been many wars too. Many
terriost actions and gun related crimes. One big country has a right to bear
arms. But they continue to have gun deaths and many other crimes. Get rid of
the guns. GET RID OF THE GUNS.

Remember hearing about a guy who actually shot his dad because his dad use
to beat his mother.

One last thing a stupid country voted in a complete dunt. And now there are
rumours you will vote in his daughter. What is wrong with these people??/?

In 1997 a certain popular person died in a car accident. I was making my
style of picnic tables when I heard. It was a sad day.

About 2005 I was driving to big city to do some job that was supervising
taxi ranks. I would finish at 5 am drive halfway home to the country then
sleep in my car. Wake up and drive home. Sleep a bit more then drive back
to big city.

I have sent an earlier update to my stepfather's kids and a friend. I don't
think I will see them again. I want to actually remove the paintings, the
gravestones and the sign at the park.

Actually I think a certain polictical party in a big country is to blame
because they didn't want a woman in office so they put up a candidate so
fundimentally stupid and he was voted in and now with rising deaths in
the country and now they can't get rid of him.

Tell you what let's get rid of violent games. I like violent movies but
they should be stopped too. A great movie trailer I saw was for Tom &
Jerry. Yes it is violent but it is a cartoon. Why should we watch movies
about killing then not think it in real life.

From 2000 I used a chat program on yahoo until about to 2006. Then
changed to one called tagged. where I met most of the girls. Met a
couple through facebook too.

Loved seeing movies at the drive-in or cinema. Saw a few great movies
up until 1978. The next movie I saw at a cinema was in 1989. Missed out
on a lot of great movies. Though now I have a great collection of dvd's,
CD's, records, tapes and videotapes. And Books.
submitted by iamgodandashamed to lifestories [link] [comments]

2020.11.25 04:31 CthrowAway90 Ideas for boyfriend-presents please!

So I saw this Australian Instagram page where she makes keychains/magnets/anything really with a lyric and she has a bunch that are of like girls in lingerie. She also can make custom ones I think, and I really liked that as an idea to get something for my bf. Not specifically for birthday or Christmas or anything, I just want to get him something. but she’s in Australia + covid etc shipping and stiff can be a pain. Plus become extremely pricey for something that might not actually be that pricey. Anyway, I’m not set on the custom acrylic, but I would love some ideas that are more on the sexy/provocative/fun side that I could get him. We’re both like super sexual, if that matters. and we have also been together for 9 years almost lol so I know he’d definitely like anything along those lines haha and I also just want to get him something like that 😏 I’m just bad at coming up with gift ideas in general for everyone 😂 Yes, I’m open to nude/semi nude Polaroids, but I want to one day do a whole like proper boudoir kind of thing for him, so I don’t want to do the photographs rn. Plus he currently gets many self-taken ones over text from me at the moment anyway haha. But yes, any ideas for some exciting presents? Thank you! Also, if you’ve bought your SO anything like fun lmk haha I’d love to hear what it was and how it went!
(PS- accidentally also posted on dating_advice so is cross posted)
submitted by CthrowAway90 to relationship_advice [link] [comments]

2020.11.25 04:29 CthrowAway90 Ideas for boyfriend-presents please!

EDIT: meant to post on the relationship_advice place as it’s not quite about dating, clicked on the wrong thing and didn’t notice. So I’ll be cross posting there as well. But still def lmk if you have ideas!:) So I saw this Australian Instagram page where she makes keychains/magnets/anything really with a lyric and she has a bunch that are of like girls in lingerie. She also can make custom ones I think, and I really liked that as an idea to get something for my bf. Not specifically for birthday or Christmas or anything, I just want to get him something. but she’s in Australia + covid etc shipping and stiff can be a pain. Plus become extremely pricey for something that might not actually be that pricey. Anyway, I’m not set on the custom acrylic, but I would love some ideas that are more on the sexy/provocative/fun side that I could get him. We’re both like super sexual, if that matters. and we have also been together for 9 years almost lol so I know he’d definitely like anything along those lines haha and I also just want to get him something like that 😏 I’m just bad at coming up with gift ideas in general for everyone 😂 Yes, I’m open to nude/semi nude Polaroids, but I want to one day do a whole like proper boudoir kind of thing for him, so I don’t want to do the photographs rn. Plus he currently gets many self-taken ones over text from me at the moment anyway haha. But yes, any ideas for some exciting presents? Thank you! Also, if you’ve bought your SO anything like fun lmk haha I’d love to hear what it was and how it went!
submitted by CthrowAway90 to dating_advice [link] [comments]

2020.11.24 15:37 HotWheelsMod /r/HotWheels 2020 Secret Santa (USA)

We are pleased to announce the FIFTH /HotWheels Secret Santa gift exchange, for 2020!

Current Number of Participants: 33

Updated 11/27 12:01pm EST

The basics:

You can sign up using Elfster here: 2020 /HotWheels Secret Santa on Elfster


You do not have to list a last name if you do not wish to do so, a single letter will work just fine, but please make use of your reddit name so matches can get an idea of what you would like.

How it works

Sign up on Elfster and create a wish list. You will be paired with someone by the sign up deadline. Send the gift by January 8th 2021.
Users are not limited to cars. If your match is up for it, be creative.

Rules for /hotwheels Sign up

Sadly in the past years folks have been burned. While we did our best to cover for folks that did not receive a gift we want to avoid it going forward.

Privacy information

In the interest of full disclosure, as the organizers will see who is matched with whom as well as any info you enter into Elfster for the swap. That said, once the swap is done you can delete your Elfster account here if you wish to do so. We have set the swap to only have members view the contact information of the person they drew in the exchange and hidden participant list. You can use an alias as your last name if you like as your name would show on your profile but please make use of your reddit user name so we know who is who.

Feedback and Ideas

We are open to expanding the dates and adjusting the suggested limit. Please feel free to provide feedback in the comments below. You can also post ideas about what you would like in the comments.


Sadly we cannot match people outside the USA due to international shipping issues HOWEVER we can restrict matches so if there are a few that are not US can try and match you with someone in your country. If there are users from Canada, Australia, or other areas that are interested in starting a swap for those countries, please let mods know and we can add the link.

A final note

Please remember that is more about giving than receiving. Users from all walks of life, age, and fiscal levels have participated in the past and we hope to have fun!
submitted by HotWheelsMod to HotWheels [link] [comments]

2020.11.24 10:53 UrbanCentrist Biden Must Chart a Bold Path in His Foreign Policy

For 18 months, Joe Biden was able to contrast his foreign policy with Donald Trump’s by painting in broad brushstrokes. He was in favor of alliances; Trump was opposed to them. He believed in American leadership in the world; Trump thought countries were taking advantage of the United States. Biden championed human rights; Trump sided with the autocrats.
Now that he is president-elect, Biden will need to be more specific about his foreign-policy stance. In many ways, Biden is a known quantity. He has a track record dating back almost five decades. But he will begin his term in a very different world than when he was vice president or a senator. He will face new, substantive challenges, including COVID-19 and a more assertive China. To meet this particularly difficult moment, he will need to master the politics of foreign policy—among different factions within his team, with a potentially obstructionist Republican Senate, and with skeptical American allies.
Biden cannot simply rely on competent technocratic management in foreign policy. His presidency may be the establishment’s last best chance to demonstrate that liberal internationalism is a superior strategy to populist nationalism. He must consider the strategic options generated by an ideologically diverse team, and he has to make big choices that are attuned to the politics of the moment, in the United States and around the world. Such a bold path is not one that a newly elected president with no foreign-policy experience could take. But he can.
To understand how Biden might approach his foreign policy, I spoke with half a dozen Biden advisers and people who worked closely with him in the Obama administration, as well as current and former congressional staff, Trump administration officials, and allied diplomats. I agreed not to identify them by name, to ensure their candor.
Within Biden’s team, an ongoing, but largely overlooked, debate has been brewing among Democratic centrists about the future of U.S. foreign policy. One group, which I call “restorationist,” favors a foreign policy broadly consistent with that of President Barack Obama. They believe in careful management of the post–Cold War order. They are cautious and incrementalist. They will stand up to China but will not want to define their strategy as a great power competition. They maintain high hopes for bilateral cooperation with Beijing on climate change, global public health, and other issues. They support Biden’s idea for a summit of democracies, aimed at repairing democracy and encouraging cooperation, but are wary of an ideological competition between democracy and authoritarianism. They favor a return to the Iran nuclear deal and intend to continue to play America’s traditional role in the Middle East. They generally support free-trade deals and embrace globalization.
A second group, which I call “reformist,” challenges key orthodoxies from the Obama era. Philosophically, these advisers believe that U.S. foreign policy needs to fundamentally change if it is to deal with the underlying forces of Trumpism and nationalist populism. They are more willing than restorationists to take calculated risks and more comfortable tolerating friction with rivals and problematic allies. They see China as the administration’s defining challenge and favor a more competitive approach than Obama’s. They view cooperation with other free societies as a central component of U.S. foreign policy, even if those partnerships result in clashes with authoritarian allies that are not particularly vital. They want less Middle East involvement overall and are more willing to use leverage against Iran and Gulf Arab states in the hopes of securing an agreement to replace the Iran nuclear deal. They favor significant changes to foreign economic policy, focusing on international tax, cybersecurity and data sharing, industrial policy, and technology, rather than traditional free-trade agreements.
Biden’s worldview is broad enough to be compatible with the restorationist and reformist schools of thought. He obviously trusts many of Obama’s senior officials and is proud of the administration’s record. At the same time, he chafed against Obama’s caution and incrementalism—for example, Biden wanted to send lethal assistance to Ukraine, when Obama did not. Biden has spoken more explicitly than Obama about competition with China and Russia, and he favors a foreign policy that works for the middle class. It is important to note that the legitimate and substantive disagreements between restorationists and reformists are between people who get along with each other. Restorationist sounds pejorative in the sense that the term looks backward, but it is not intended to be. Obama’s foreign policy was successful in many respects, and the case for restoring it is reasonable, as is the case for significant departures from it. Some officials are also restorationist on particular issues and reformist on others.
The progressives who staked out new ground on foreign policy during the primary campaign will be a significant force inside the Democratic Party in a Biden administration. Progressives believe foreign policy should primarily serve domestic economic and political goals. They are skeptical of high defense spending and want to demilitarize U.S. foreign policy, but they are also alarmed by the rise of autocracy globally and want to push back against it. Several Biden advisers, in particular Jake Sullivan and Tony Blinken, made a special effort to engage progressives from the Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders campaigns after the primary. Now that the election is over, progressives mainly focused on domestic politics are very much inside the tent shaping Biden’s economic agenda, but some foreign-policy progressives have adopted a more confrontational approach toward the Biden team, hoping to pressure it from the outside on China, Iran, and defense spending.
Biden should see these contrasting perspectives as assets, and proactively create a team that reflects the broader foreign-policy debate and avoids groupthink. But he will need to actively manage the different views. He should start by learning lessons from Obama. In late 2012, Obama chose John Kerry to be his second secretary of state because he was the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was an old political ally, and was widely perceived to be the most logical candidate. Obama’s signature foreign-policy accomplishment in his first term was the pivot to Asia away from the Middle East, but Kerry wanted to pivot back. Obama returned to a Middle East–centric State Department, seemingly without intending to do so. Blinken, then Kerry’s deputy, was left to manage America’s alliances in Asia—something that he did effectively and that might fall to him now.
Similarly, Biden could unintentionally create a uniformly Obamian worldview in his national-security team, unless he purposefully decides to go another route. Biden’s governing goal should be a genuinely intellectually honest process in which fundamental assumptions and policies of restorationist, reformist, and progressive ideas are constantly stress-tested and assessed with an open mind. This process needs to be outcome-oriented and not devolve into the more meetings mindset that creates gridlock and trends toward the lowest common denominator. Biden needs a variety of strategic choices. As a seasoned foreign-policy leader, he is ideally positioned to adjudicate this debate and to choose among the options that it will present.
Biden should certainly entrust senior positions to people who tend toward the Obamian worldview, but he should also find roles for people who might advocate for a new direction, including Pete Buttigieg, Senators Chris Coons and Chris Murphy, and former officials Jake Sullivan, Toria Nuland, Kurt Campbell, and others who have written or spoken in favor of major policy changes since 2016. Sullivan is likely to take a domestic-policy job, but given his role in developing reformist ideas over the past four years, it is important that he also remain an influential voice on national security, and he is well positioned to help connect the domestic to the foreign. Given the substantive nature of the debate thus far and that it has generally been amicable, an ideologically diverse Cabinet should bring out the best in all factions, sharpening thinking and policy options.
Biden will need a variety of ideas because he faces significant political challenges at home. By any metric, Biden certainly has a mandate. He won 306 electoral votes and more popular votes than any president in history. However, the election was not the sweeping repudiation of Trump that Democrats craved. Trumpism has not gone away and instead appears to have transformed the Republican Party into a force for populist nationalism, including hostility toward international cooperation and skepticism about alliances.
The Republicans are well positioned to retain control of the Senate following the two runoffs in Georgia in January. If Mitch McConnell reprises the obstructionist role he played in the Obama administration, he could kill Biden’s domestic agenda on arrival. Many Biden Democrats believe that a successful foreign policy requires rejuvenation at home, so McConnell’s tactics may be a big problem. Republicans will likely put Biden’s nominees through intensive hearings, and they may be willing to reject appointees, particularly at the subcabinet level.
All Democrats and many Republicans agree on the need to repair and strengthen America’s alliances and partnerships, but this is more complicated than the campaign rhetoric made it appear. The year 2021 will not be like 2009, when Obama was widely greeted as a conquering hero, winning the Nobel Prize after less than a year in office, simply because of what his election signified. The world is a less cooperative and liberal place today. Just consider the rise of nationalist-populist governments in Brazil and India and the erosion of democracy in Turkey and Hungary.
America’s closest allies will all work with Biden and welcome the end of Trump’s erraticism, but they have lingering doubts about where things are headed. The Australian and Japanese governments, for example, are quietly concerned about Biden’s approach to China and are watching his early appointments very closely. The French worry that Democrats will leave Europe high and dry as they try to withdraw from the Middle East and from the war on terrorism more broadly so that they can pivot to the China challenge. The British are wondering whether Biden will invest in their special relationship, given that he opposed Brexit. Several officials I spoke with from America’s allies in Europe and Asia have reservations about the planned summit of democracies that Biden made a centerpiece of his election. They worry that the meeting could become an end in itself and be too inwardly focused and beset by problems about which countries qualify as a democracy.
So how should Biden navigate this complicated landscape? Although he is absolutely right to claim a mandate and to convey optimism about the future, Biden must also be cognizant of the precariousness of his liberal-internationalist worldview. Liberalism is under siege at home and abroad. It will not automatically endure.
In COVID-19, Biden will inherit the greatest international challenge facing the United States since the height of the Cold War. The pandemic is a moment of global reordering—not to deal only with the coronavirus but also the underlying issues it revealed, including an uncooperative China and the vulnerabilities of interdependence. Biden must be ambitious at home and abroad, because these realms are inextricably linked. The tricky part is that he must construct a bold policy within the political constraints of Washington, where Democrats may not carry the Senate.
Biden should use competition with China as a bridge to Senate Republicans. Their instinct may be obstructionist, particularly because Trump is pressuring them not to recognize Biden’s win as legitimate, but many of them also know that the U.S. cannot afford four years of legislative gridlock if it is to compete with China. A number of Republican foreign-policy experts pointed out to me that some senators, including Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz, may be out for scalps, but that others, including Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, and Dan Sullivan, are mainly interested in the substance of Biden’s foreign policy, especially toward China. Biden, then, can use competition with the country to gain support for other political measures.
He can create goodwill with some of these Republicans by, in the first few weeks of his term, supporting pending legislation on investments in the semiconductor industry and 5G infrastructure, appointing assistant secretaries for Asia at the State Department and the Pentagon who can easily win bipartisan support, and showing that he is serious about using the Treasury and Commerce Departments to compete with China.
These efforts would lay the groundwork for crucial elements of Biden’s Build Back Better domestic program: targeted infrastructure investments, including in clean technology; an industrial policy to compete with China on 5G, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence; a limited and strategic decoupling from China in certain areas; and efforts to bolster the resilience of the U.S. economy to external shocks, including by making supply chains more secure.
Although some in Biden Land support this bipartisan give-and-take, others, including many of the restorationists, are very skeptical of using competition with China as a framework for U.S. foreign and domestic policy. Some also have substantive reservations about any decoupling from China. They expect China to reach out for a reset early in 2021—probably regarding the pandemic and climate change—and would like to explore opportunities for cooperation. Foreign-policy progressives are also generally opposed to building Biden’s foreign policy around competition with China, believing that the strategy risks creating a Cold War.
These restorationist and progressive fears are overblown. Almost all of these early measures are about enhancing domestic competitiveness, not engaging in an arms race or a clash of civilizations. Indeed, Elizabeth Warren advocated for domestic reforms to compete with China during her presidential campaign. Domestic progressives are much more inclined than their foreign-policy counterparts to support this conceptual framework if it unlocks the politics of an ambitious domestic agenda, which will include new jobs through investments in clean technology—a vital part of a climate policy.
Getting serious about competing with China is also justified on the merits. Xi Jinping’s China has become more dictatorial and aggressive. Even the European Union, which is about as benign a geopolitical actor as China could hope for, has all but given up hope that engagement and cooperation will change China or fundamentally moderate its behavior, even on shared interests such as global public health. Cooperation with China on shared interests should occur, but we need to be realistic about the limits. To prevent competition with China from spiraling into outright confrontation, Biden should situate the strategy as part of a larger affirmative vision for strengthening the free world. This policy would include making free societies more resilient to external shocks such as pandemics and economic crises, fighting corruption and kleptocracy, standing up to autocratic countries that try to bully or coerce democracies, and combatting democratic backsliding. This approach would be more effective than organizing a global summit of democracies.
The inescapable political reality in Washington is that competition with China is the only way to persuade a Trumpian Republican Party of the benefits of international cooperation—whether through alliances providing a counterweight to Chinese power, through vying with China for influence inside international institutions, or through relying on international law to prevent Chinese revisionism in the South China Sea. Without the China component, Biden has no hope of creating any kind of domestic consensus around internationalism.
After addressing the China issue, Biden should shockproof U.S. foreign policy against the return of Trumpism in 2025. Republican senators may hope to harness populism for future elections, but they are, for now at least, committed to America’s alliances. Why not codify their support by introducing legislation that requires congressional approval if the United States is to leave NATO? Biden could proactively build redundancy into the alliance system by supporting EU security and defense cooperation, even if the action risks a duplication with NATO. Biden should also press Congress to enact new commonsense restraints on presidents—for instance on their ability to circumvent the confirmation and security-clearance procedures for appointees—to prevent a recurrence of Trump’s abuses of power. On climate change, he must prioritize carbon-emission cuts at the state and city levels, which are less likely to be stopped or reversed by Congress.
In managing relationships with allies, Biden cannot rely only on shared problems to bring them closer. He must also engage these leaders on their terms, paying special interest to their political situation and priorities. It would be a disaster if France were to fall into the hands of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in 2022, so Biden should bolster President Emmanuel Macron, including by showing solidarity with France in the face of a domestic terrorism threat. He should make a genuine effort to help Britain succeed after leaving the EU, as long as it respects its obligations under the Good Friday Agreement. And finally, a bipartisan consensus on China will reassure Japan and Australia.
Managing nondemocratic allies—including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Hungary, and the Philippines—is more difficult. They will try to put him in a vice by flirting with Russia and China. Biden won’t succeed by appealing to the better angels of their nature, and he cannot be tricked into thinking that America needs these regimes more than they need America. Biden must be feared by the so-called strongmen before he can be respected by them. He must show that he is willing to push back and that he can wield power and generate leverage more effectively than Obama. He must introduce red lines that cannot be crossed. Only then can transactional cooperation on matters of mutual interest really occur.
Biden’s election is a reprieve from Trumpism. Whether that break is permanent or temporary depends very much on the choices that Biden makes. Biden must act with a degree of urgency and boldness to demonstrate that his brand of liberal internationalism effectively addresses the real concerns and anxieties Americans have about the world.
submitted by UrbanCentrist to neoliberal [link] [comments]

2020.11.24 00:46 ARISTOCRAT_BY_BIRTH The case for a Chinese lab origin of the COVID-19 pandemic

The case for a Chinese lab origin of the COVID-19 pandemic
Executive Summary
Due to the inability to investigate the Chinese labs in question by the CCP we will never be able to explicitly confirm these theories but the preponderance of evidence points towards a lab origin of COVID-19 from an accidental release from a virology lab in Wuhan. Further analysis of the RaTG13 and MP789 BLAST sequences (both samples were studied at the Wuhan Institute of Virology) and review of the virology literature provide supporting evidence that a chimeric recombination of these two viruses during gain of function research was the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus which is currently ravaging the world.
To begin this discussion we must first define the three primary theories for the origin of SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes the disease COVID-19:
Zoonotic Theory – This theory postulates that SARS-CoV-2 began as most natural diseases have by jumping from an animal host to a human and then adapting to circulate in humans.
Natural Lab Leak Theory – This theory postulates that SARS-CoV-2 was a natural virus that was collected during ecological sampling, transported to a lab for research, and then accidentally released through a lab accident.
Man-made” Lab Leak Theory – This theory postulates that SARS-CoV-2 originated through research of natural viruses with human intervention. I consider there to be two probable mechanisms for this the first is adaptation via serial passaging while the second is gain of function research.
Where did the outbreak begin? Or fighting Chinese disinformation.
Before I can begin discussing those theories I must first pinpoint the origin of the outbreak as ever since the outbreak began the CCP has been relentless in trying to pin the origin of COVID-19 on other countries. China has tried to push stories that the true origin of COVID-19 began in Italy, Spain, and the US army among others. Meanwhile calls for an international investigation into the deadliest pandemic in a century are met with blatant aggression. We must first address the claims of a non-China origin before narrowing down the location further. The claims for a Spanish origin are based on a paper which identified coronavirus in sewage samples dating back to March 2019. This study however only found 2 out of 5 markers for COVID-19 (IP2/IP4) for that sample and were unable to detect it again afterwards so I consider it unlikely to be SARS-CoV-2. Secondly, regular pneumonias circulating in Italy were accused of being COVID-19 by Chinese state media but the evidence in those studies such as antibody prevalence is non-conclusive that it was COVID-19 rather than one of the other ~200 respiratory diseases that circulates throughout the world. The allegations that the US army brought it to China are just paranoid delusions that can be rejected on the grounds of CCP propaganda. Finally, one can review the GOP foreign affairs report to ascertain the overwhelming evidence that COVID-19 originated in China. But where exactly in China did the outbreak begin? For this segment, I’ll be essentially summarizing some of the excellent work that Project Evidence has done so check them out for a full account. In this account multiple lines of evidence point towards an origin in Wuhan, a major metropolitan city in central China with multiple virology labs. Evidence that the outbreak began in the Huanan seafood market is also suspect given that bats are primarily a delicacy in southern China not central China where Wuhan in located. That is not the only evidence disputing the assertion that the Huanan seafood markets (wet markets) were not the origin. There is also evidence that the earliest cases reported no link to the seafood market30183-5/fulltext) although it may have been where the first superspreader event occurred. Additionally, no evidence of cross species transmission was observed at the seafood market in the study. However, ultimately it is clear that the evidence points towards patient zero residing in Wuhan as no verifiable alternative has been provided to date.
Rebuttal of Zoonotic Theory
The zoonosis origin theory is primarily fleshed out in The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. In this paper they promote the theory that RaTG13, a horseshoe bat coronavirus, mutated and jumped into humans. Furthermore, in this paper they reject the theory that SARS-CoV-2 could have originated in a lab because a computer simulation that they ran showed that the receptor domains were not optimal for humans. I consider this argument quite weak as there are several ways to genetically modify viruses “suboptimally” and in fact they have been forced to issue an addendum due to the pioneering work of other scientists calling them out on several points. Probabilistically, a zoonotic transfer of this nature is unlikely to occur in such a superspreader event because the mutation that allows the zoonotic jump is random and not ideal. In fact, SARS-CoV-2 expresses an ideal mutation never before seen in the coronavirus clade that allows an unpredicted affinity for the ACE2 receptor. Similarly, SARS-CoV-2 was so well adapted to humans from the beginning of the outbreak that its RBD spike protein had a higher affinity for humans than any other animal. Additionally, COVID-19 appears to be too stable to be a zoonotic shift as the phylogenetic tree is missing key intermediate steps while remaining remarkably stable over time. SARS 2003 had substantial mutations in the same time frame as SARS-CoV-2 indicating that it is already well adapted to humans. Finally, I find it unlikely that horseshoe bats are going to fly 1900 km from Yunnan to Wuhan. Similarly, due to the lack of any evidence that COVID-19 was prevalent outside of Wuhan prior to the pandemic the idea that some poor Chinese worker who is shoveling guano (bat feces) is commuting 7 hours each way from Wuhan to the bat caves in Yunnan via high speed rail (catching it in Yunnan from a bat, failing to infect anyone along the way, then coughing on everybody in Wuhan) also fails to pass Occam's razor.
Criticism of the Natural Lab Leak Theory
While I do not doubt that Zheng-Li Shi (primary PI at Wuhan Institute of Virology) is a good scientist that follows protocol the issue is that modern science does not work that way. A Principal Investigator like Dr. Zheng-li Shi spends their time writing grants and doing photo ops while an army of graduate students and postdocs perform the actual work in the lab and has limited understanding of the day to day operations necessary to make those pretty graphs in the papers. The idea that there could be no lab leaks as she claims is dubious at best when the state department had issued cables indicating that the lab in question had safety issues. The primary objection I have to this theory is the idea that the virus is natural. The first item to address is what are the closest known relatives to SARS-CoV-2. There are two of particular interest RaTG13 (bat coronavirus with 96.1% complete genome similarity) and MP789 (pangolin coronavirus with 85.1% spike protein similarity). If natural rates of evolution were to occur it would take decades for RaTG13 to mutate into SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 wasn’t studied until 2013; however some research has shown that this process is sped up within cell culture as in this paper where 600 cell passages resulted in a 2.1% difference in the genomic differences of the spike proteins. That however, is still quite slow compared to the timeframe involved which is why I tend to take the view that a more active role was involved in the creation of SARS-CoV-2. Please bear in mind that while I am critical of the natural lab leak theory, I am most skeptical of the claim that it couldn’t have originated from a lab that was explicitly modifying and researching coronaviruses.
Gain of Function Hypothesis for Origin of SARS-CoV-2
I would like to start this section with a quote from Bryson Gray “Why did Obama send money to that Wuhan lab?”. While humorous, the statement is inaccurate in the sense that Obama did not write a check to the lab in question. However, the larger point that federal grants written to EcoHealth Alliance were distributed to the P4 lab in Wuhan is indeed accurate. EcoHealth Alliance is a nonprofit group that has received millions of dollars in research grants to sample viruses from the wild and genetically modify viruses in the aim of preventing spillover events. A noble goal but one that probably led to the deadliest pandemic in a century. One of those viruses they sampled and sent to the Wuhan lab was BtCov/4991, better known as RaTG13, which was discovered after miners in Mojian Mine, Yunnan fell ill and died in 2012. There is more to this story which is expanded upon in this article but the key point is that the most similar known virus to SARS-CoV-2 had been known to kill prior to being sent for study to the Wuhan lab. Another point against the EcoHealth Alliance is that they were caught orchestrating key scientists’ statement on the “natural origin” of SARS-CoV-2. Despite their attempts to cover it up we know that RaTG13 was being worked on as recently as 2018. So now we have a plausible viral backbone but how do we explain the RBD and the unique Furin cleavage site? MP789, a sample also studied at the Wuhan lab, provides a very plausible RBD as it is 85.1% similar in that region. By recombining the spike protein of MP789 with the viral backbone of RaTG13 you end up with a virus that starts looking very similar to SARS-CoV-2. That just leaves us with the unique furin cleavage site that just happens to exactly match to the Heparan sulfate binding motif (XBBXBX) that indicates cell culture adaptation. While furin cleavage sites do exist in other coronaviruses they have yet to be seen in other betacoronaviruses like SARS-CoV-2. Gain of function research explicitly aims to make viruses more deadly to study so adding in features that increase infectivity (e.g. furin cleavage site) would be standard protocol for the type of work this lab was doing. Getting sloppy after a long day of work or even more nefarious motives such as selling lab animals on the side for extra cash could result in an accident occurring. Despite all their rhetoric claiming elsewise, China has quietly admitted the possibility of a lab leak when they strengthened lab standards in February. In addition, please bear in mind that this theory does not claim that gene jockeys would have the perfect foresight to design the exact genetic sequence that SARS-CoV-2 contains but rather that by adding in features like a furin cleavage site, which are known to increase infectivity, and then running in vitro experiments you can very quickly end up with COVID-19 after some natural selection against human cell lines. A more technical account of this hypothesis can be found in a piece by Yuri Deigin.
To conclude, I do not believe the release was intentional as it has hurt China immensely as well as the rest of the world or that it was intentionally developed as a bioweapon but I do believe the most parsimonious explanation of the origin of COVID-19 is an accidental release of gain of function virology research from a Wuhan lab. Or more succinctly, that it was a “man made” lab accident. Finally, while I believe I have presented a strong case you must remember that this is circumstantial evidence and without a legitimate investigation into the origins of the virus taking into account all the hypotheses seriously we cannot be certain of which hypothesis actually transpired.
Special thanks to u/healthcare-analyst-1 for some feedback and critique although he isn’t as much on the GoF train as I am.
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2020.11.23 19:20 ShrunkGiant Ukrainian Mail Order Brides on camera by BrideCams

Yet the difference, of course, is that the company is making a massive profit from the men making fools of themselves, and while lots of ladies are earning money out of the schemes also, it is unclear that it is helpful to them in the longer term. Anastasia International, while not straight conspiring in the frauds, runs a very profitable business version that allows them to grow. While actual and long-term liaisons do sometimes form through the site, regularly it only serves to boost the concentric circles of skepticism, dissatisfaction and also heartbreak for all entailed. Anastasia urges that it weeds out scams whenever it discovers them, and also has actually banned some women from the website. It also states it will certainly reimburse customers that succumb to scams, and provides recommendations on how to prevent them.
Regardless of attempting to find out English as rapid as she could, when she first got here Wilson can not comprehend what her new other half stated to her. Her marital relationship is better now, she states, due to the fact that they can truly talk. italina Wilson had never ever planned to marry an international male whose language she did not speak. Nor did she intend to relocate 6,000 miles far from her family to a country she understood absolutely nothing regarding. She had a really good task in the audit division of a big importer in her indigenous Ukraine. She was also separated, after weding at 21 to a male whom she refers to as "not fit to domesticity". Her ex-husband had a tough time working as well as made points "tough" for her, she says softly before moving on to happier subjects.
After calling a mail-order company, most of Filipina mail-order brides met their spouses by going to "show-ups", a meeting in which a group of Filipina ladies are brought to meet a Korean man that is searching for a spouse. At the show-up the Oriental man selects a bride-to-be from among the group, and in an issue of days they are married. Asian men likewise worked through mail-order firms to discover partners as they functioned overseas in the 1800s. Trick variables establishing the partnership in between movement and also marital relationship were demographics, legal plans, cultural perceptions and modern technology.
Imbalances between the number of offered women and the number of men desiring partners produced a need for immigrant females. As a result of this inequality, a brand-new system of "picture brides" established in mainly male negotiations. In the early 20th century, the establishment of "picture brides" established because of migration constraints. The Japanese-American Key Arrangement of 1907 enabled Japan to approve passports to the spouses of immigrants to America. As migration of single Japanese ladies to America was successfully disallowed, making use of "picture brides" given a system for ready ladies to obtain a ticket to America, while Japanese employees in America can acquire a women helpmate of their own nationality.

Which country has the most Affairs?

This list prepared by the shows the countries that are most often cited as having illicit affairs. 1. Thailand 56% But it's Thailand which grabbed the top spot with 56% of the population admitting to being unfaithful. 2. Denmark 46% 3. Italy 45% 4. Germany 45% 5. France 43% 6. Norway 41% 7. Belgium 40% 8. Spain 39% More items•
Listed here are six indications you have actually obtained nice dating rules as well as are prone to make an excellent impression-- and valuables you would possibly require to consider doing in your ukraine brides next day, should you aren't already. We are the pursuers and it gets on us men to stimulate some feeling of destination in the woman we want. There have actually been a number of murders of mail-order brides in South Korea. In June 2013, The Philippine embassy in Seoul reported that it had obtained several issues from Filipinas that have married Korean males via mail-order, frequently coming to be "sufferers of grave misuses". The Philippine police rescued 29 mail-order brides on their means to marry South Korea men whom Principal Superintendent Reginald Villasanta, head of an organised criminal activity job pressure, says were "deceived into promises of an immediate well-off life through marriage with Oriental gentlemen". The ladies were advertised in online and offline "magazines" to South Oriental men.
For the women as well, although hundreds of them earn a living from the rip-offs, it is not a simple emotional burden to bear. Other females were really searching for a young and fascinating partner and wished to leave Ukraine, yet invested hours chatting with senior men in order to make money. I was able to uncover specifically how the rip-offs function because of an opportunity encounter with Alina, among the women entailed, who really felt born down by her collusion in what she called "emotional prostitution". A number of them feature absurd assumptions, obviously, but I am unsure that any person deserves this therapy. Equipped with this info, I was completely expecting to invest a week being offended by unpleasant males taking advantage of susceptible females, as well as there were absolutely a few on the journey whose misogyny got to prize-winning levels. I opted for a firm called Anastasia International, which is no dingy basement procedure, however a significant company with a projected income last year of $140m (₤ 84m). It has countless women in Ukraine and across the globe on its books, readily available for conversations as well as in-person conferences with lonely bachelors throughout the world looking for a spouse.

How much is a Ukraian bride?

An average middle-class, university-educated Thai lady deserves a dowry of 100,000- 300,000 baht. A dowry of a million baht for an uneducated lady of modest means is just ridiculous. Thai dowry prices fall drastically if your bride-to-be has been previously married, already has children, or is not a virgin anymore.
A worldwide marriage company is a service that ventures to present males and females of various nations for the objective of marriage, dating, or communication. Most of these marriage firms are based near ladies in creating nations.

Options For Systems In Ukraine Mail Order Other Halves.

Nevertheless, economic elements are not the only driving aspect for ladies in Asia to go into the mail-order sector. Filipina ladies often went into the mail-order industry in the hope of weding abroad and afterwards funding their family members for migration. Sometimes ladies were recruited based upon their physical appearance, with a focus placed on young people as well as virginity. This is discovered among store companies, the majority of which deal with well-off males from various other Oriental nations. The majority of Eastern mail-order brides originate from the Philippines, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India, Taiwan, as well as China. The Korea Times reports that annually, thousands of Oriental guys register for matches with Filipina brides with firms as well as by mail order. Based on data from the Oriental government, there are 6,191 Filipinas in South Korea who are wed to Koreans.
Because the collapse of the Soviet Union, large numbers of eastern European women have actually promoted themselves in such a way, mostly from Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova. Men that list themselves in such publications are referred to as "mail-order husbands", although this is a lot less typical. As internet dating has actually gone mainstream over the previous years, Anastasia is attempting to rebrand what was when called the "mail-order bride" market as something modern and modern. This is no longer the protect of seedy and unscrupulous guys looking for vulnerable women from poor backgrounds to work as a longterm sex servant, the marketing suggests. This is "international dating", a way to locate romance without borders. As soon as you solve you are going to offer it a shot, the initial point it is a good idea to do is develop your profile.
Though lots of guys claim they desire a smart, amusing, or moral Russian female, those aren't the search terms they use. " hot Russians" as well as "Russian brides" are two of the top key words in the Russian dating sector, and also as we are an on the internet organization we naturally intend to capture that web traffic. And also, or simply doesn't have the very same ring to it.

Q: Would You Take Into Consideration An Objective For These Ladies To Come To Be A "Bride" To Be The Need To Leave Russia?

Although these marital relationships can be successful, in many cases immigrant wives are maltreated, misunderstood and separated from their Oriental spouses. One technique men use when selecting girls as spouses is "Like a court in an elegance contest, the guy interviews the females, a number of them 20 years younger than he, as well as chooses". The term "mail-order new bride" is both slammed by proprietors of international marriage firms and used by them as an easily well-known term. A mail-order bride-to-be is a female that provides herself in brochures and is chosen by a man for marriage. In the twentieth century, the pattern was mainly towards ladies residing in developing nations looking for guys in more industrialized countries. In the 21st century, the pattern is now based mainly on internet-based gathering place which do not per se certify as mail-order new bride services. The majority of the females listed in the twentieth-century as well as twenty-first-century services are from Southeast Asia, nations of the previous Eastern Bloc and also from Latin America.

You've Seen Hot Ukrainian Brides.

International dating sites supply a wide variety of on-line interaction, including instantaneous messaging, email letters, webchat, phone translation, digital gifts, live games, as well as mobile-based chat. International marriage firms are often described as "mail-order bride" companies. Nevertheless, lots of take into consideration the term "mail-order bride-to-be" negative and feel it demeans foreign females by comparing them to commodities to buy and by falsely indicating that, they exercise no judgment over the men they satisfy as well as would certainly wed anyone from a relatively rich country. Many international brides originate from establishing nations in Asia. The countries the ladies come from are confronted with joblessness, malnutrition as well as inflation.

Q: What Kind Of Woman Usually Enroll In This Solution? Age? Are They Truly Warm?

See the next ukraine mail order brides web page to get going, as well as be shown what online dating resembles, figure out exactly how it actually works as well as obtain some valuable ideas concerning making your online dating experience risk-free and effective. In passing IMBRA, Congress was replying to claims by the Tahirih Justice Facility, a lady's campaigning for group, that mail-order brides were vulnerable to domestic abuse due to the fact that they are not familiar with the regulations, language and customizeds of their brand-new home. The TJC firmly insisted that unique legislation was needed to safeguard them.

Men who live with mail-order brides reveal what life is REALLY like - Daily Mail

Men who live with mail-order brides reveal what life is REALLY like.
Posted: Wed, 19 Oct 2016 07:00:00 GMT [source]

International Marriage Company.

Oftentimes nonetheless, sufferers were fed incorrect info regarding the history of their future partner and family members, and endured abuse southern Oriental guys, which brought about "desertion of the marriage house, splitting up and also divorce", Villasanta stated. The New York Times records, "On a monthly basis, thousands of South Korean males fly to Vietnam, the Philippines, Nepal and Uzbekistan on special journeys. An agent accompanies each guy to see many ladies in a solitary day, often all gathered in the same hall".
International marriage agencies motivate ladies to register for their solutions, and also help with interaction and also conferences with men from created areas of North America, Western Europe, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and also New Zealand. This network of smaller sized worldwide marriage agencies is frequently connected with web-based worldwide dating sites that have the ability to market their services on a bigger range, in compliance with guidelines such as the International Marriage Broker Guideline Act. Experian, a marketing research firm, reports that the top 10 international dating websites attracted 12 million visitors in March 2013, up 29% from March 2012.
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2020.11.23 16:25 strugglingmtstudent Are there any Australian Jordan enthusiasts out there? Just have a few questions regarding camping

JD Sports Australia announced on their Facebook page that Jordans 4 Fire Red will return on their stores on the 28th of November this Saturday and I'm planning to get one pair for my birthday.
I just want to ask these questions for the people who has an idea or planning to get one as well (especially fellow redditors who works under JD sports):
Hoping to hear you guys from soon cause I really want to get this one for my birthday and it's my first pair of Jordans assuming I got lucky.
(Some of you might say it's not worth it but F it, it's a pair of Jordans and it's my money. And fuck resellers)
submitted by strugglingmtstudent to Nike [link] [comments]

2020.11.23 16:23 strugglingmtstudent Are there any Australian Jordan enthusiasts out there? Just have a few questions regarding camping

JD Sports Australia announced on their Facebook page that Jordans 4 Fire Red will return on their stores on the 28th of November this Saturday and I'm planning to get one pair for my birthday.
I just want to ask these questions for the people who has an idea or planning to get one as well (especially fellow redditors who works under JD sports):
Hoping to hear you guys from soon cause I really want to get this one for my birthday and it's my first pair of Jordans assuming I got lucky.
(Some of you might say it's not worth it but F it, it's a pair of Jordans and it's my money. And fuck resellers)
submitted by strugglingmtstudent to airjordans [link] [comments]

2020.11.22 20:35 TekkogsSteve Reverse Engineering the ICC Test Batting Rankings

Reverse Engineering the ICC Test Batting Rankings
TLDR: I tried to replicate the ICC Test Batting Ratings formula from a 30-year-old book and got decently accurate results.
Skip to Results for the graphs
Link to spreadsheet where I did all my calculations
Link to sections of the book that describes the algorithm
For a while now I’ve been interested in finding the formula for how the ICC Player Ratings are calculated. I figured that, although it might be quite complex, there would be some complete formula or algorithm specified somewhere online. But alas, after quite a few google searches, I couldn’t find exactly what I was looking for. The most information I could find was from this site, which is either old and has been superseded by the more current site or was never official in the first place. So eventually, I decided it would be fun try to reverse engineer them for myself.
Disclaimer: This was really just a proof of concept, the method I used was inexact and often not very scientific. If I wanted to do this properly, I’d probably need use a lot more sophisticated tools and software that I’m unaware of. All of this is to say that this is largely just to get the jist of the formula and I could be talking out my arse at points, but hopefully it is still interesting!
The Ancient Sacred Texts
In order for this to be remotely possible I needed data in the right format I needed to know what variables were actually taken into account. I had some idea of that from the aforementioned FAQ but I eventually found myself asking around on the member forums of the ACS (which if you haven’t heard of, I strongly suggest you check it out). They very kindly pointed me to this book, which provided almost all the information I needed to try to replicate the rankings. The final section of the book very handily gives a fairly detailed description of the algorithm used by the Deloitte Ratings, which went on to become the official ICC Ratings. However, it was written all the way back in 1990 and it is very possible that the rankings have changed quite a bit in the past 30 years. As well as this, there are some aspects that are left out that I had to guess/figure out for myself, which we’ll get onto later
The Data
Of course, I also needed to have all the data, from the description in the book I knew the raw data I needed to calculate the change in rankings after a match were as follows:
· The scores of each batsman in each innings
· Whether or not the batsman was not out at the end of his innings
· The bowling rating of each bowler at the start of the match
· The number of overs bowled by each bowler
· The batting rating of all batsmen before the match
· The winner of the match
· The number of innings played by the batsman before the match
Most of these things can be taken from the scorecard of a given match. I used CricketArchive because it seemed more consistent and easier to parse than cricinfo scorecards. Thankfully, you can also find the batting and bowling rankings at any given date in the history of Test Cricket online pretty easily here. So after messing around in Power Query for a few days I was able to fumble together a script that could take the scorecard link as input and then combine all this data together for all the batsmen involved in the match and spit it out. My dodgy script only worked completely on about half the matches I gave it and the webpages only show the top 100 at any given time (meaning you had to be in the top 100 batsmen both before and after the match for me to be able to find your rating), so after throwing it around 35 test matches since the start of 2017 I was left with 218 individual match performances as data points with which to experiment.
The Algorithm
Deriving the Match Score
The ratings are a weighted average of scores given to each individual innings, and the book provides this equation for getting the new rating after an innings
*After looking at the book I tried to confirm the derivation of this formula but kept on ending up with (k * Old Rating * (1-k) instead of (k * Old Rating * (1-k^(n)). However, that through the numbers off so I think what is in the book is correct and not a typo. It would be really appreciated if someone could double check this though, and point to where I’m wrong if I am.
Where k is the decay constant that they set at 0.95 (I assumed it hasn’t been change since then) and n is the number of innings played by that batsman before that innings. We only have the ratings before and after each match as that is when they are updated, but we can make an approximation that I will call Derived Match Score (DMS), by manipulating the equation to get
In theory, DMS should be equal to the weighted average of the first and second innings scores given to the batsman in that match, so I can define Match Run Value (MRV) as follows, and then plot it against DMS to verify my results
Which leads us on to the meat of the problem…
Calculating the Innings Scores
This is the actual formula that gives a score to each innings, the book denotes this as Runs Value (RV) and the crux of the formula is as follows
So what are all these variables? Runs is simply the number of runs scored in the innings. Average is the average runs per wicket over all of test cricket (the book states this as “approximately 31”, however I used 30.5 as it is closer to that now)
MPF, IPF and Quality require a bit more explaining. MPF, or Match Pitch Factor can be thought of as the average runs per wicket during the match, however there is some nuances that I will get to later. Similarly, IPF is Innings Pitch Factor and can be thought of as the average runs per wicket of that innings (with the same caveats as MPF). Quality is a sort of expected average runs per wicket, which is derived as some function of the weighted average of the bowling ratings of the opposition bowlers (weighted by the number of overs each bowler bowled in that innings).
You can sort of think of this formula as taking the runs scored by a batsman, making an adjustment for how difficult it was for the average batsman in that match, making a smaller adjustment for how difficult it was for the average batsman in that specific innings, and making a much bigger adjustment for the quality of opposition bowling. Also note that these adjustments are multiplicative, and that we’re still ending up with a score on the scale of runs. A batsman up against a perfectly average attack, in a perfectly average innings in a perfectly match will have the same Runs Value as the runs he made in that innings.
Innings Pitch Factor and Match Pitch Factor
This is the first place where there is a major lack of information in the book. Regarding the ratio of runs to wickets in a match, it states:
“Incomplete innings have to be adjusted first, as 180 for 2 would very rarely be equivalent to 900 all out. A separate formula thus transforms the simple ratio of runs per wicket to the much more important sounding ‘match pitch factor’ (although, it should be stressed, the actual pitch is not being assessed in any way)”
The only problem is that they don’t give any formula for this, so I was stuck. Ultimately, with no information on the functional form of said formula, the only way I could treat this was to guess a reasonable function and continue from there.
I decided the most reasonable assumption to make was that MPF was simply the average of the IPF for each innings, and that I would calculate “my” IPF as follows. Consider the average percentage of innings runs scored by the fall of the nth wicket, and denote it as C(n). I found data for partnerships in this paper, and used it as a proxy (I know that adding all the means and finding the cumulative percentage is not necessarily the same thing, but I figured it was a good enough approximation for my purposes).
Wicket Average Runs By Fall of Wicket C(W)
1 36.6 0.122
2 72.9 0.242
3 114.3 0.380
4 157.9 0.525
5 192.5 0.640
6 225.6 0.750
7 250 0.831
8 271.5 0.903
9 287 0.954
10 300.7 1
Then calculate IPF by projecting what the completed innings score of an incomplete innings was likely to be, after considering this table, and dividing by 10. So if an innings is declared on R runs and W wickets, then
This IPF isn’t perfect, but it made a slight increase to the accuracy of the results
After sorting out the IPF and MPF I still had to figure out how to calculate the Quality variable. As with the other 2, the book doesn’t give a formula or really any hints towards it other than it uses the weighted average of bowler’s ratings. So I made the assumption that it could be approximated by the basic formula
Where a and b were parameters to be estimated. I thought I could use a simple linear regression on this with the data I had, but I couldn’t easily extract the quality rating from the derived match score (for reasons I’ll get too soon). I considered trying to make this estimation based on a regression predicting the actual innings totals in the matches from the bowler’s ratings - that is what the Quality variable is supposed to account for – but the data for that would be too noisy to do it properly. So I ended up to resorting to the, not very scientific, method of using Excel's solver to find values that best fit the data, then rounding them to correct significant figures. I was left with a = 1800 and b = 30.
The book then describes adjustments made taking into account the result of the match. I won't cover them in detail here because this post is already massively long and they are in the pages of the book I linked to above if you are interested. Basically, batsmen with high scores in winning games have their score for that innings increased proportionally to how well they did, whilst low scores in losing efforts get quite severely punished. It was all described completely which was nice as it meant I didn't have to do any guesswork but the fact the adjustments were there meant that it wasn't simple to directly work out Quality as a function of the oppositions bowling ratings.
There are also adjustments made for if a batsman finishes not out but they aren't described at all beyond a brief mention so I decided to omit them from this.
Dampening First Innings
In order that a player doesn't reach the top of the rankings immediately if they have a particularly good debut. The book puts it like this:
"The system works for all but the newest Test players, who for the first few games of their career have their ratings damped by gradually decreasing percentages to stop them rising too high and too quickly.
But after ten innings (for a batsman) or 40 wickets (for a bowler), ratings are no longer damped - after then, players are on their own
It is unclear here whether or not this means that their real rating is kept and used to calculate new ratings, which then reduced by a different percentage after each match, or if a player's first innings simply gets counted for less forever. As it was simpler to implement, I chose the later. So now a player only ever receives a given percentage -p- of points for his first inning, and the percentage of points he receives for his second and third innings, and so on, are increased linearly until his -n-th inning, at which point all innings are worth full points in the ratings. So we have parameters p and n to consider
Using the same method as that used to estimate the a and b parameters for Quality, I determined that p = 50% and n = 10. In other words, a players first inning is worth 50%, and this increases until his 10th Inning which is worth 100%.
So how does my hacked together approximation of the ratings compare? As mentioned, the MRV should be equivalent to DMS (up to a transformation). If we plot them together we see that they agree pretty well with each other. In fact MRV can explain roughly 90% of the variation in DMS
You may wonder why this isn't a trendline with equation y = x, but rather y = 22.2x +79.9. This was to be expected as the ratings (and therefore DMS) are all based on a scale of 0 to 1000 whereas Innings Scores (and therefore MRV) are still always on the scale of runs. But we can use the information from this graph to convert each Innings Score into the correct scale. Then we can use the first equation of this post to work out the rating after the first innings, given the rating before the match and the newly converted innings score for a batsman's first inning. We can then predict what the rating should've been after the match using the calculated rating after the first innings and the second innings score. This gives us a set of ratings that we calculated using our algorithm, along with the actual ratings calculated by the ICC after the match. Plotting them together looks like this
That's an incredibly close fit, but can be a bit misleading, as ratings after a match would be close to the rating before the match, which we use in our calculations anyway. It would be more informative to take a look at the change in the ratings compared to the predicted change in the ratings.
So this is still a good fit. In fact, this algorithm can explain nearly 92% of the variance in the change in official ratings after a test match. Is that good? I'll leave that for you to decide.
In theory it should be possible to get it pretty close to 100% as we're trying to predict a process which is itself driven by an algorithm and completely non-random. Still I think this shows we have an algorithm who's results tend to line-up pretty well with those of the official ratings, and I think it was not too bad for a first try.
Where do the uncertainties lie?
I think the biggest uncertainties are in that we don't really know what sort of function the Quality, MPF and IPF variables follow, and it seems impossible to ever know that with certainty. Similarly, there are a lot of parameters to be determined. There were at least 4 that were determined here and hey are all linked together in complicated ways its impossible to take one in isolation and determine its value. Even more parameters were taken as given and could've been changed since the book came out. The nonlinear weights for each factor as well as the decay constant were examples. If I had not considered them fixed I don't think I would've had enough data to confidently determine every parameter. So next time more data and more sophisticated parameter estimation techniques would be required.
What next?
The first thing I wanna do with this is to forecast the changes in ratings after each test in India's tour of Australia. That way I can test if it actually works on new data it hasn't seen before, or if its complete junk.
Also, now that we have a similar process for determining rankings as that used in test. We could use it to make our own batting rankings for first class competitions. I think that would be really cool and interesting, if say we had a complete rankings table for the County Championship
The obvious next step is to work out the bowlers ratings, but they are even more hideous than this algorithm, so I'll leave it a bit for now. Would be interesting to come back to some time in the future though.
If someone who actually knows what they're can pick this apart or point out a flaw in what I've done, I'd love to hear from you. I'm genuinely curious as to how someone would go about doing this sort of thing, and I'd love to learn more (even if it necessitates telling me this is complete garbage)!
If you made it this far thanks for taking the time to read this!
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2020.11.22 20:00 discoskyline aElNnoIsh3c

hey guys what's up and welcome back to my channel and welcome to another I should i repel it review and this is another pellet that I had a lot of requests um to review and I did also post on my Instagram shirt by the way I would love it if you came over and joined the family but yes I posted on my Instagram story and asked if you guys wanted to see a specific review on this palette and the vast I'm pretty sure it was like 80% a majority of you definitely did want to see a review so that is what we're gonna do so in today's video we're talking about the brand new morphe 39s such a gem palette when I originally saw the pictures online at this one I was like oh that does look pretty but then it actually arrived and I actually opened it insert in person and I was like wow wow it's really really pretty so really excited to jump into this one we're gonna be testing out all of the formulas in this palette it does actually contain a various mixture of formulas including a brand new like glittery kind of a formula umm yeah really excite we're gonna be doing swatches of all of the shades and then I'm gonna be doing a demo on my eyes testing it out saying how it blends seeing how it applies and in today's video I will also be actually I'm creating three separate eye look using me as palette I've had a lot of questions and a lot of requests and stuff about you know making these reviews a little bit more versatile for you guys rather than only just showing one so yes if you're interested in watching an index a very detailed review on the brand new morphe 39s palette then please keep on watching all right now obviously firstly packaging this is what the palette arrives in it's a black box it says 39s such a gem on it there's some information on the back of the palette 39 shades for your lavish life meet your bejeweled bestie use the matte shimmer metallic and glitter finishes to Lux up your face and eye looks then swipe on the super-sized gel-like shades for a flashy highlight or next level I top us so I believe that those are you know the new formulas that I was telling you about earlier they're kind of like a little bit glittery looking but they've got more of a gel formula apparently so yes that's the box the pellet does also come in like a bubble wrap sleeve and then this is what it looks like now Murphy has sounding they seem to have done away with their older packaging you know that plastic kind of row tacky packaging that they have for a long time there this was like a beautiful embossed sort of a cardboard finish it's really nice it feels nice feels so much nicer than their old packaging I'm also just quickly on price like I said 39 shades in this palette and this one will set you back 35 US dollars so that is equivalent to 89 cents up her eyeshadow in this for those of you who do love to know the price per shade for my aziz morphe does have an Australian website now and I'm not sure if I've told you guys that before and by the way this review is not in any way sponsored I know that there's a lot of controversy around morphe and affiliate codes and stuff I'm not an affiliate it's not sponsored let's just get that out of the way but yes they do have an Australian website in this one retails on the Australian website and which ships I believe from here in Australia so you'll get it a lot faster for 50 Australian dollars now the part that we're all waiting for let's have a look at the actual shadows now one thing that still does bother me about morphe is they still like they insist on doing these ridiculous plastic covers with the shade names now I know a lot of people say oh you know stick it on the inside of the palette on the lid of the palette or then you can refer to it yes I get that I do that and I just think it like personally for me it bothers me to spend money and invest money into something and you know this is by all means like its affordable but it's not like a $2.00 eyeshadow palette and it bothers me that I have to invest money in something and then custom DIY it so that I can use it effectively kind everything camera morphe print the shades on the palette please we're all begging you so this one does not come with a mirror as well worthy of a mention now the actual shades of this like I'm not really much of a purple eyeshadow like lover at the best of times but this is honestly very very well thought out very very pretty very big mixture of finishes in this one actually and it's like I can see textural differences even between like the basic shimmer shades and the metallic shades there seems to be two types of three types of metallic finishes there's like a full-on glitter finish here it's honestly it's beautiful so here is a look at the shades close-up as you can see we've got a mixture of neutrals and then that's blended in with a mixture of really beautiful pinks purples like rosy kinds of tones honestly like it's stunning it's truly truly stunning now these seven shades in the center of the palette these are those gel glitter Stoppers or highlighters and love that they've thought enough you know about it so that you know it's versatile and it can be used in other areas of the face mixture of mattes and metallics on like the top row there on the bottom row and then it looks like we've got one pressed guitar that there is like a beautiful glitter shape so you guys can see that it's a really really pretty it feels good it feels like good quality it doesn't feel cheap or tacky or nasty and like a lot of the other more people it's have so I think so far you know for quality of actual packaging and things are looking pretty good but we don't know if the eyeshadows inside or actually good quality we're gonna find out let's jump into some swatches of this one now I'm gonna show you close-up swatches of all of the shades and so you can get like a bit of an idea and a feel for the colors and the textures in this and then we're gonna start creating some eye looks alright so jumping straight into swatches here I've gots watched the two top our rows of the eyeshadow palette you can see there's a beautiful mix of different tones there's Pink's there's hopes there's Burgundy's purples Silver's Browns Pink's a mixture of shades and finishes and then here we have the bottom two rows I think I should have palette again gorgeous mix of colors warm tones cool tones purple Silver's look at that glitter and look at that deep sparkly black like can you even so so so so pretty so rich so pigmented and then lastly to finish off we have those jumbo shades in the center of the palette to be honest these swatches of these aren't that impressive because they are sort of more glitter Stoppers but some very very pretty soft sort of ethereal type of colors really gorgeous all right so I've seemed you guys in and also primed my eyes hopefully you can see a little bit better also please um don't be concerned about me my eyes are incredibly bloodshot at the minute because I literally woke up at 2:00 a.m. it's now 6 a.m. literally woke up at 2 a.m. could not sleep so started to film like hella early this morning so that's why my eyes are bloodshot I'm also another worthy thing to mention I do have like a pimple right here on my eyelid only if you can see that I'm so if you noticing like the eyeshadow not blending in at certain area all the things looking a bit funky they're probably potentially maybe jutsu the pimple or not the actual eyeshadow itself say yes all right picking up this palette now to begin with I feel like because it's a gem toned palette you know jewel tones and I feel like we should do like a purple based sort of a look I just feel like I wouldn't be doing this palette justice if I didn't then also there are really beautiful rich warmth in this as well and there's also gorgeous cool shimmers like silvery kind of tones so it's definitely got lots of options so first up I'm going to take pink prize this soft matte pink and just on a fluffy blending brush I'm gonna start working that one crease I did get a little bit of kick back and when dipping into the shadow personally that doesn't bother me too much obviously if the shadow completely crumbles and falls apart it's a different story really it's not super super pigmented it's more of like a wash of color this one it is a pastel and it is a matte I just want to show you here so you can see this is the kick back that I got from that shadow now I'm now going into grape mines which is this matte purple shade picked it up on a blending brush I did tap off most of the excess color didn't want to be too over-the-top I'm just buffing that into the crease it's more of like a buildable as well it's not overly pigmented I wouldn't say Purple's are typically pretty hard to get right well not to get right but to get done really really well it's just you know fairly average purple eye shadow look I wouldn't say it's the easiest shade to blend like there's a little bit of patching but it's also not the worst I should already used it so make sense oh my gosh can you either weather oh it's a fully like crazy storming here and actually I feel like maybe that's why I wake up like it's just so loud and crazy outside like pouring rain super super windy I love storms if there's one thing in life that makes me really really excited other than cups of tea its storms now this particular shade will be quite interesting so we'll see how it goes this one's called make it rain and it's the matte purple shade just here same brush I'm gonna dip into that now this is quite deep quite dark and you can see here on my brush it's a lot pigmented than that purple shade that I used previously tap off the excess she's pretty pigmented and actually blends better than I sort of expected I do believe this one is a pressed pigment as well I mean it's not it's not horrible like you couldn't say that that was like a horrible blend and there's two other shimmery purple shades I'm in the palette it's violet and amethyst me and they do have different textures I might go with this one here because it's a little bit more vibrant I'm not seeing as I've already got it on my finger okay bad ones more of a satin definitely more of a satin finish for reference it is this one here so is it rich and pigmented yes but is it super metallic nerds certainly more of a satin finish it's quite smooth quite buttery doesn't feel chunky or anything it was pretty good on the eyes now these Goleta shades from the middle of the palette are really really really beautiful these are the stupid size ones I think I think I'm gonna agree this one here which is he for it and oh yeah I am here for it it's a really really pretty jewel cream with like a silvery base but then it's got purples and blues through it it's throw nice it's funny though in the pan like it looks a really really pink but it's actually quite purple and I'm just using it dry I want to get a good idea of how it works without having to OH oh my God look at that ah Ike I say that's a beautiful jewel cream wow that's so pretty morphe morphe alright let's try it with a dry brush as well and see how it goes [Music] with a brush you get a much more soft focus diffused kind of a finish and then packing it on with a finger you get more like an intense finish and then I imagine with a wet brush it's gonna be even more intense on the very inner inner corner I'm gonna take this shimmery champagne gold kind of color which is this one let me find the name see how a new wing uses so this shade is called pearl collection this is really the only highlight like straight-up highlight Schaffer in the palette oh she's pigmented on the brow bone and maybe a little on the inner corner to be honest I probably will pack that really bright um glittery purple shade on the inner corner oh my god this palette really like the new formula it's gorgeous alright so I've just wet my brush now going back into that glittery shade I just want to see how it performs with a wet brush picking it up don't think it's necessarily anything better or more intense and using it with the finger though just leaning alright going into this lighter purple this one is Peri twinkle don't really love that under the eyes taking that purple shimmer that we used on the lid now pretty much just going to reflect what I've done on the top part of the eye and the lower lash line and that's sort of where we are looking and I'm going to jump off camera quickly finish off my makeup oh my god though it's so nice actually truly in my opinion may be the best form that morphing has ever created it's just gorgeous very easy to apply very easy to blend very easy to work with no complaints stunning all right I'm gonna finish up my makeup and then I'm gonna come back and show you the final look and then we will create another two eyeshadow looks using the palette all right so I finished up the rest of my makeup and this is what the eyes are looking like really really happy with how they turned out that shimmery purple that bright beautiful jewel comb and on the inner corners of my eyes is absolutely insane I have not touched this up at all I haven't added any eyeshadow at all it is still just as vibrant as earlier I feel like maybe it just looks a lot more vibrant because my makeup is done but like honestly gagging over it now I haven't applied highlighter because um there's big shades those gel texture shimmery thingies whatever we're calling them um in this apparently can be used as highlighters as well so I wanted to give that a go now obviously the most logical one for me and my skin turn is going to be the gold in the center here what is it cold catch the light yes catch the light but you could definitely use some of these lighter shades I'm if you wanted so with a highlighter brush I'm gonna pick it up it's quite a loose formula the gold I mean can it be used as a highlighter absolutely but is it chunky and textured also absolutely I don't know if you guys can see on my skin there but it's quite it's more of a galician finish as opposed to a highlight like a smooth highlight finish so for me wouldn't be necessarily in a rush to use that so yeah that one is a no-go alright so before we go any further with the review of the palette I just wanted to show you two other eyeshadow look so you guys you know have some more ideas about how best to use these and how to pair some of these shadows together so first up super swanky and this is like a medium brown transition shade I'm just buffing that all the way through the crease on a fluffy blending brush I am taking that's tempting this one's like a date enriched sort of ready kind of a brown this one's also a matte on a smaller blending brush i am working that one into the outer crease really really buffing that around blending it out just creating like some depth and some shadow and some deepness and darkness in there I'm actually quite impressed with this shadow I'm especially for like a match shadow of this type of a tone it actually packed and blended and built up really quite well without getting patchy and chop it which is really really good to see next up I'm taking wine not this is such a cool name this is basically like a more pinky ready version of the one that we've just used kind of layering that one a little bit over the top and darkening the crease up even further just to make it nice and burgundy toned then I'm taking bling thing and this is one of those big glitter Stoppers I did first try it with a brush but much much much preferred packing that one on with a finger you just get way more opacity and way more color payoff and it's so so pretty and beautiful but then guys you could not expect me to not use the glitter so the glitter is called show off and it's a beautiful sort of rose gold coppery gold these champagne II it's like a real mix of glitters packing that onto the lid it actually adheres really really well I have not used a glitter glue I have not used any kind of adhesive and it's stuck to the lid really beautifully really really impressed and then finishing the eye look with this shimmery champagne this is called pearl flexion basically using that to highlight the brow bone and then highlighting the inner corner with another of those glitter Stoppers catch the light through the lower lash line I pretty much just smudged those same matte Browns and here is a really pretty rosy warm pinky toned i'm glittery look using the palette love this one and then to round out the looks i wanted to do something cool tones so again starting out with that same matte transition shade that medium warm brown super swanky just rubbing that through the crease as a transition shade blending it backwards and forwards i do really really like this transition shade it's not too cool it's not too warm and it does pair beautifully with a lot of different colors next up I'm taking posh boss this is a really pretty it's kind of like a greyish it's like a a lilac he toned cool toned Brown with like a little bit of grain and it's a really beautiful color packing that one over the top of that any short transition shade I'm just building out some depth and some color then dazzle them this is this next one I'm to be honest this is the shadow that I had the most trouble with out of the entire palette I'm not sure if it's just my palette because I have seen other people use this without any issues but it seemed like it was packed like a little bit too hard in the actual pattern I did have a sort of scrape off the top layer to really get like fantastic pigmentation it's a beautiful color though then taking making Bank this was a really really nice cool tone paler sort of champagne shimmer oh my gosh love love love love this one it just it would look so beautiful just washed all over the lid on its own love it then through the lower lash line I'm just smudging that same transition shade then taking posh posh posh posh I keep screwing it up posh boss again through the lower lash line just to darken it up and then finally finishing with rocks on which is like a shimmery black from the pallet smudging that up nice and high in the lower lash line just to really smoke the look up and finish it off and then again highlighting the brow bone with pearl flexion perfections really the only smooth shimmery shade that can be used as a brand highlighting this palette but here is the finished cool trend look I really really loved this one as well now as far as the palette goes overall I do think that this is a really really beautiful palette it's great to see a different mixture of shades in a palette and I haven't seen a palette like with these sort of gem jewel tones in quite a while and I just personally I am really really drawn to them I love it there is such a wide variety of finishes and textures in it makes it really versatile I would have probably liked to see some more like maybe one more champagne color that didn't have a gold undertone just to really complement the whole palette but you've got deep dark shades you've got your Pink's you've got your Reds you've got your warm tones there truly is a little bit of everything in this one and the formula of these ones like seriously is actually stunning like I am really really happy with the payoff and the pigmentation of you know especially these shades in the center I would love to see more if you do a full pallet using only these um cuz they're gorgeous like they're seriously gorgeous and I mean even the pressed gluta has got a really nice formula and that's like it's unheard of to be this beautiful and smooth these creamy most price glitters are really terrible so yes overall I do you think this is a really beautiful palette again obviously it depends on what you've already got if you've already got 10,000 purple eyeshadow palettes may not be worth investing in but if you ask somebody that loves these kinds of times these beautiful rich jewel amethyst tea bag and deep purple kind of atone and you know I just think it's beautiful and there's a really really good balance of neutrals in here as well so you could definitely use it as an everyday I should have palette it's certainly not only gonna be you know reserved for going out looks or special occasions because there are so many beautiful neutrals in it as well I think 89 cents per shade is very reasonable as well yeah I'm gonna upset about this one at all I'm so glad that I tested it and truly probably based on the shimmers I think that this is going to become you know one of my regular rotations I think that I will be reaching for this one a lot purely because there are options warm tones neutrals cool turns pops of colors glitter shimmer matte easy to blend glitter Stoppers it's pretty much got everything but yes those are pretty much my thoughts on the new morphe such a gem of 39s palette guys I hope this video was helpful for you please if you've got any more questions about the product or about the video are about anything at all please be sure to pop them in the comment section down below leave the video a thumbs up if you did enjoy it and also make sure to subscribe and hit that notification bar and yes I love you all so so much I hope you're having an amazing day and I will catch you guys in my next video bye
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2020.11.22 09:00 dspeyer EA Forum Digest 22 Nov 2020

Needed: Volunteer forecasters for Fish Welfare Initiative

Hello all, Fish Welfare Initiative is looking for one or a couple people who could put in a couple of hours one time to forecast on our likelihood of achieving various goals by various dates. The idea is that this will provide additional external feedback which will help us set better calibrated goals (so goals that are probably in the 30-60% likelihood of achieving them).(This is something new we're trying out, so would also love to hear if anyone has previous experience or insight into using forecasting to shape organizational goals and plans.)
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AGI Predictions

I recommend this LessWrong post that lets you make public predictions about various questions related to AI safety and AI timelines, and to see existing predictions by other users.

Interrogating Impact

During an in-depth conversation on positive impact, I learned that I have unnuanced and overconfident tendencies about what positive impact means. In particular, I had baked naive EA thinking into the definition of impact without adding the appropriate level of nuance to the mixture. In the following, I'll share an embarrassingly unfiltered account of the thinking process I went through as I worry it may be true for others as well.

As an EA I think, talk, and care a lot about having positive impact. But what is positive impact really, and how do I assess it when the rubber hits the road?
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Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?

[epistemic status: speculation]Crossposted from LessWrong
I'm envisioning that in the future there will also be systems where you can input any conclusion that you want to argue (including moral conclusions) and the target audience, and the system will give you the most convincing arguments for it. At that point people won't be able to participate in any online (or offline for that matter) discussions without risking their object-level values being hijacked.
--Wei Dai
What if most people already live in that world? A world in which taking arguments at face value is not a capacity-enhancing tool, but a security vulnerability? Without trusted filters, would they not dismiss highfalutin arguments out of hand, and focus on whether the person making the argument seems friendly, or unfriendly, using hard to fake group-affiliation signals?
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The effect of cash transfers on subjective well-being and mental health

This is a cross-post that summarises a new working paper from the Happier Lives Institute, The impact of cash transfers on subjective well-being and mental health in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis, by Joel McGuire, Anders Malthe Bach-Mortensen and Caspar Kaiser.
We know cash transfers reduce poverty, improve health and enhance education but what impact do they have on how people feel and think about their lives? Or, to ask a familiar question: does money make people happy? The literature on the link between income and subjective well-being has long lacked causal evidence - there is lots of correlational research. Luckily, there has been recent research using cash transfers in low and middle-income countries. We reviewed this evidence in a meta-analysis. We find, in short, that cash transfers have a small, positive effect on subjective well-being, one that lasts for several years.
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What good are you doing today?

I really feel at home inside the EA Forum, and so I feel comfortable admitting I am anxious that I’m not doing enough good. Today, I got confirmation that I will be a paid participant in a clinical research trial in Sydney, Australia. I plan to donate the 2500$ to Partners in Health Sierra Leone after being inspired by John Green’s recent vlogbrothers video. As good as this is, I want to get more people involved. Most of my friends, family and business associates don’t see the nameless, faceless people desperate for support, but I go to sleep and wake up thinking about them. The 16000 who died today from malnutrition and as many will die tomorrow from malnutrition alone. I can’t stop thinking about what the clinic receptionist said when I told them my plans. The receptionist said, “No one’s donated their money before.” That was shocking to hear. Aside from the potential to ask the receptionist for money for my unique act of heroism (haha), I am a bit deflated altruism is the exception. I think if there’s any platform to make altruism the standard, it would be here. So, I hope I’ve inspired you to think outside the box with how you can do more good!
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2020.11.22 07:55 Str8Outta2750 A glimmer of hope after 19 years? The Disappearance of Passy Reyes (Sydney, New South Wales, Australia – 18 July 2001)

I’ll preface this by saying this post is a little bit different to the usual Unresolved Disappearance cases on this subreddit – but also for me too. It’s a Missing Persons case which I wasn’t actually aware of until earlier this year, when I stumbled upon an old newspaper whilst doing a cleanout of my home, during the COVID-19 lockdown.
The case I present, is the disappearance of Passy Reyes – an 18 year old girl, whom vanished from her home, on the Northern Beaches of Sydney, in the early hours of Wednesday,18 July 2001. She had been studying for her final year of high school, for the Higher School Certificate (HSC)). Her disappearance did attract media attention within Sydney at the time, and New South Wales Police did issue an appeal to the public.
During my initial research of Passy’s case online, there was very limited information – I suspect much of the data originally published about her case, has vanished off the face of the World Wide Web in the intervening years since 2001.
However, also during my initial research, I found a discrepancy on the New South Wales Police Missing Persons Enquiry System – which for me, raised questions about Passy and the status of her case; a “mystery within a mystery” if you will. I will go into more detail about this, further on in my post.
I had began to draft this post, when the NSW Police actually made the move very recently, during August 2020, to highlight Passy’s case in the first episode of a new podcast series, NSW Police State Crime Command – Investigations (Sources: Apple Podcasts, Spotify); and which has been publicised across Australian media. This podcast has also covered details of Passy’s case, perhaps previously not published – making this quite a rabbit-hole of a case.
Passy still remains missing, sadly after 19 years, although this new podcast has apparently already provided some new leads from the public, according to the NSW Police – which is the aim of this podcast series (Source: Today – Nine Network).
I will cover Passy’s case – firstly with the Background and Case Outline, secondly with Investigative Theories, thirdly with The Vanishing Profile, before closing out with My Opinions and Theories.
Background and Case Outline
Passy Reyes (surname pronounced as “Ray-ez”) was born on 9 June 1983, in Guadalajara, Mexico – under a different name at birth. Passy emigrated to Sydney, Australia at 3 months old, with her mother Margaret and her father – a lawyer from an influential and powerful Mexican family; and the son of the then leader of the Mexican political opposition (presumably the late Pablo Emilio Madero, although not actually confirmed on the podcast or in recently published articles).
Her parents’ marriage had been marred by domestic violence. Their move to Australia had been both a desire of Passy’s father; and an attempt to repair their marriage and start of a new life. However, despite the birth her younger brother (formerly known as Christopher Reyes, or Chris, now known as Tomas Alarcon) – her father grew frustrated with being unable to gain employment in their new country and his violent tendencies had resurged.
Eventually, her father left and returned to Mexico – however soon after, during 1985, he returned to Sydney to abduct both Passy and Tomas, trafficking them under false Passports – allegedly based on stolen identities - which he had arranged and obtained in Mexico; and flying back with the children to Mexico City via Los Angeles.
Margaret spent the next four years trying to regain the custody of Passy and Tomas, via applications to the Family Court of Australia, but also travelling to Mexico to find them. Margaret faced threats to her life and experienced further physical violence, during her pursuit to recover her children. Eventually Margaret regained the custody of her children in 1989, following the death of her estranged husband and father of her children, in a motorcycle accident. Margaret returned to Australia with her children, settling in Mona Vale, a suburb on the Northern Beaches of Sydney. Still in fear of her late husband’s family, Margaret changed the identities of herself and her children, adopting the surname Reyes.
Being near the beach, Passy and her brother were involved in water based activities and sport, including the Nippers with their local Surf Life Saving Club; and also in junior competitive swimming (Source: Avalon Bilgola Amateur Swimming Club Inc – note the misspelling of Passy’s name on the club’s honour role, in two instances). Passy has been described as being a strong swimmer.
Passy was also heavily immersed into art – with Visual Arts being her pet subject during her secondary education at Pittwater High School. She was also heavily influenced by her own Mexican background and culture in her artwork. Although Passy did have a small number of friends, she has been described by both her family and her school peers as being introverted and socially withdrawn; and someone who preferred her own space. Passy was also described as very focused and intense on her school studies; and would isolate herself to do so.
However, during her final year of high school (Year 12) while studying her Higher School Certificate (HSC)), Passy was suffering an enormous amount of anxiety and stress. Passy was concerned about her own academic success, putting high standards upon herself to achieve; and was afraid of failing (Sources: The Sydney Morning Herald - via The Internet - Archive Wayback Machine, SBS Insight – via The Australian Missing Persons Register). Adding to her worries, Passy had been struggling on her final Visual Arts assignment; and was denied an extension on her assignment by her high school (Source: The Sunday Telegraph – via Imgur).
Tied into these early news articles on Passy, is scrutiny and criticism of the HSC. It should be noted in 2001, within the State of New South Wales, the NSW Board of Studies had reformed and revamped the syllabus and format of the HSC – which had been the biggest revision to the Certificate (up to that point) since it was first introduced in 1967. The Class of 2001 were the first to undertake the ‘new’ HSC – and its implementation was criticised by many at the time.
Margaret also had concerns for Passy’s physical health, as she appeared to lose weight and looked pale; and suspected she might have been anaemic. At her mother’s insistence, Passy attended a doctor’s appointment on Tuesday, 17 July 2001. Following the appointment, according to her mother Margaret, Passy’s mood was dark and she had been crying, on the bus trip home. However, on her doctor’s advice, Passy relaxed that evening and spent it watching TV, viewing the sitcom Everybody Loves Raymond (then aired in Australia on Network Ten), before retiring to bed at 9.00 pm. According to her brother Tomas, she appeared to be in a much happier mood and laughing. However, Margaret felt something was up with Passy, as her demeanour seemed out of character for her; and indicated this as such to her brother.
In the earlier hours of the following morning (Wednesday, 18 July 2001) at 4.00 am, Margaret Reyes was awoken by the sound of running water – to find her daughter was having a shower. This was really early for Passy; and too early for both Passy and Margaret’s schedule that day. Passy was on school holidays during that week (Source: NSW Dept of Education and Training, via the Internet Archive Wayback Machine); and was to have accompanied her mother that morning, on work experience, to her mother’s workplace in the Sydney CBD. However, according to Margaret, they weren’t due to leave home until 7.00 am.
Margaret questioned her daughter, whilst she was still in the shower, as to why she was up so early – but Passy didn’t reply. Margaret then saw the door on Passy’s bedroom open; and saw her formal dress (which Passy was to have worn at the end of that year, at her Year 12 School Formal) – a yellow, green and blue floral pattern silk dress with a split up the side, laid out on her bed. Margaret then told Passy (who was still in the shower) to “…clean up [her] mess”, with Passy responding “I like my mess”. Margaret then returned to bed – eventually she heard the shower turn off; and initially assumed that Passy had returned to her bedroom. A few minutes later, Margaret then heard the main door of their home slam shut. Alarmed by this, Margaret got up and called out for Passy – however, it was clear that Passy was gone and had left the house.
Hysterical, Margaret then woke up Tomas, screaming “Passy’s gone!” and asking him to go and find her. Tomas went outside, initially conducting a search of their street, to no avail. Both Margaret and Tomas then got into their car to conduct a search of their local area, including the nearby beach and eventually the Mona Vale headland – with Tomas fearing that Passy might be suicidal. Again, their search was to no avail – with Margaret and Tomas returning to their car and then contacted the Police.
Passy’s Missing Persons Report was officially filed at the nearby Dee Why Police Station, coming under what was the Northern Beaches Local Area Command (LAC) within the NSW Police Force (now amalgamated into the Northern Beaches Police Area Command (PAC)). The Northern Beaches LAC took charge of Passy’s case; and wasted no time in issuing a public appeal on Passy, along with an extensive search – including a comprehensive aerial and costal/water search by both PolAir and the Broken Bay Water Police; and an inland search of the local area.
It has been said the Northern Beaches LAC’s original investigation of Passy’s case was “exhaustive” and had accumulated a “whole brief of evidence” in her case file. The Police also targeted their public appeal for Passy, in local print media within the Northern Beaches – including the local Manly Daily newspaper. Margaret Reyes also took it upon herself to distribute photos of Passy within the local area. As a result of these actions, Police received a number of leads – including alleged sightings by witnesses.
The first lead, was an alleged sighting reported by a local bus driver, identified as Brian Raymond Sampson. Mr Sampson came forward after seeing a photo of Passy that Margaret Reyes has put up at the local bus depot. Mr Sampson made a statement, that he saw a female fitting Passy’s description, at 4.45 am on the morning of her disappearance, on Barrenjoey Road – near the intersection of Bassett Street – at Mona Vale (about 500 meters from Passy’s home). He described her as wearing a “lime green coloured formal-looking dress” (which he thought was unusual for both that area and time of day), walking along lower part of the gutter (i.e. on the road), with her back turned to him. Mr Sampson did slow down, thinking she might want to board the bus – but she didn’t get on; and continued driving on.
Another lead was forthcoming from local Mona Vale resident, John Kreegan. Mr Kreegan lived on a property, which backed directly onto Basin Beach; and which had direct access to the beach, via a set of stairs. On the morning of Passy’s disappearance, at about 7.00 am, Mr Kreegan walked down his back stairs to the beach, for his morning swim – he discovered sitting at the second last stair, some neatly folded pile of clothing. It wasn’t unusual for swimmers and surfers to leave their clothes on Mr Kreegan’s stairs, as it was above the beach’s tideline. However, the clothes were still there, after Mr Kreegan returned from his swim later that morning.
Two days later, at 9.00 am, Mr Kreegan discovered the same pile of clothes were still on his stairs, undisturbed. He decided to pick up the items and took them into his home, in the hope of finding their owner. The items included a black cotton jacket and a green, blue and yellow silk formal dress – and contained within their pockets, a chain and a silver locket containing a watch. Later that day, after seeing an article on Passy in the local Manly Daily newspaper – Mr Kreegan contacted Police and handed over the items he found. It was later confirmed the clothing and items found did belong to Passy – the chain and locket were gifts to Passy from her grandmother.
There was also a potential lead from one of Passy’s former neighbours, Amanda Townsend. Ms Townsend resided in an apartment block in Darley Street, Mona Vale – which Passy’s family had resided at, up to just prior to her disappearance; and Passy was known to Ms Townsend. Ms Townsend had washed and hung her clothes to dry, at the rear of the apartment complex, the day before Passy’s disappearance. The following morning, Ms Townsend discovered two items of her clothing had gone missing from the clothesline. These were a black polo neck short-sleeved top and a Size 14 thigh-length blue fleecy hooded jacket with a white lining.
There was a glimmer of hope, regarding Ms Townsend’s lead, especially for Margaret Reyes. There was a theory that Passy had returned to her former home, then stole and changed into Ms Townsend’s clothes; and headed off to other destinations unknown. However, Police ultimately ruled out this lead, for a few reasons. The location of the apartment block was not en-route to Passy’s known movements from her current home to Basin Beach that morning, plus the items of clothing would have been too big on Passy.
Another person known to Passy personally, Gary Spalding, also came forward with leads. Mr Spalding was the father of Passy’s friend, Shantelle; and was also a bus driver by profession. Mr Spalding sighted a young woman with a striking resemblance to Passy, on two occasions in the week following her disappearance, whilst on duties driving buses.
The first sighting by Mr Spalding occurred at 11.00 am on Thursday, 19 July 2001 (the day after Passy’s disappearance), at the intersection of the Wakehurst Parkway and Pittwater Road at Narrabeen – 5.5 kilometres (3.4 miles) from Passy’s home. The woman was wearing a grey jumper with a red V-neck band, similar to the Pittwater High School uniform; and was also carrying a white plastic bag.
The second sighting of the same woman by Mr Spalding, occurred four days later on Monday, 23 July 2001, also along Pittwater Road – but this time 3 kilometres (1.86 miles) from Passy’s home; and again carrying a white plastic bag. It should be noted, in his statement to Police, Mr Spalding said he was only about “thirty percent sure” the woman he saw, was Passy.
About eight weeks after Passy’s disappearance, another lead came into NSW Police. Glenn Emmeriks, an electrician whom had undertaken work over a 3 day period at the Reyes’ home, in the week before Passy’s disappearance. Mr Emmeriks claimed he had just seen Passy at a cake shop at Kings Cross, purchasing bread rolls. Mr Emmeriks was also in the shop at the time, claiming to have stood only 3 meters (approx. 10 feet) away from her at the counter. Mr Emmeriks was served first, with Passy then served at the counter by another person. He claimed to have twigged it was Passy, after hearing her accent; and claimed to be “one hundred percent sure” it was her. He also stated that Passy appeared to be healthier and better in her appearance (her hair appeared to be clean and brushed; and had less acne) compared to the last time that he’d encountered her.
Mr Emmeriks also told Police he deliberately decided not to talk to Passy, as he genuinely believed she did not want to be found – but did attempt, after leaving the cake shop, to double check and see if the woman he saw was indeed Passy, but he lost sight of her.
There were other alleged sightings reported to NSW Police during this period – within Sydney, including at Bondi Beach, Darlinghurst and Belmore Park (opposite Central Railway Station); and also localities interstate.
One strange lead was also reported to NSW Police, alleging that Passy had been moonlighting as an exotic dancer at a strip club, prior to her disappearance. However, this lead was later ruled out by NSW Police – as Passy was confirmed to have been home and studying on the dates she was allegedly rostered at the strip club.
Despite the initial publicity of Passy’s case, the leads would go cold. Aside from her case being featured in 2003, on the news/public interest TV program Insight, on Australian public broadcaster SBS), media interest in Passy’s case also subsided.
In 2008, the NSW Police referred Passy’s case to the NSW Coroners Court, for a Coronial Inquest. The full Findings of Passy’s case have not been made public, the finding was made that Passy had died on or about 18 July 2001, however could not on the evidence presented, determine a finding as to the place, manner and cause of her death.
However, NSW Police have officially kept Passy’s case active and open. In 2011, NSW Police commenced a program to build a DNA database on long term Missing Persons, by obtaining samples from relatives. Margaret Reyes submitted her DNA as part of this program.
In August 2020, NSW Police made Passy’s case was subject of the debut episode of its NSW Police State Crime Command – Investigations podcast. There was renewed media interest and publicity for Passy’s case, coinciding with the podcast – along also with the release of an aged-progressed photo of Passy, from NSW Police.
According to the Today) program on the Nine Network, several new leads were apparently forthcoming following the podcast on Passy’s case. However a more recent article in the Northern Beaches Review (here) – NSW Police have made a more tempered statement, saying the podcast has attracted one lead, however it didn’t shed any light on Passy’s disappearance.
Investigative Theories
Whilst the NSW Police state they are keeping an open mind on Passy’s case, they admit their primary leaning is that Passy took her own life, via suicide by drowning.
However, NSW Police do have two other leading theories to Passy’s case – one is that Passy died in an accidental drowning; the other is that Passy staged her disappearance to start a new life.
NSW Police have also stated their reasoning for their prevailing theory of suicide – based upon the evidence in the case; as well as Passy’s actions and behaviours in the lead up to her disappearance were indicative and symptomatic of “cleansing rituals”. In other words, these “rituals” being acts of closure for Passy, some of them directed to those close to her, prior to suicide.
Police have also confirmed that Passy left her Passport, her bank keycard and her wallet behind at home, when she disappeared – which may arguably support the theory of suicide.
However, her mother Margaret is of the firm belief that her daughter is still alive; and had planned her disappearance to start a new life. According to Margaret, in the lead up to her disappearance, she claims her daughter was openly lying, to both her and her brother, about her whereabouts on the occasions when she did leave the house. Usually, Passy claimed she was going out for a swim – however, this was during the Southern Hemisphere Winter, when ocean temperatures were quite cold. According to her brother Tomas, she would come back from her alleged swim, claiming that the water was nice and warm. Margaret is of the belief that Passy was doing reconnaissance during these alleged “swims”, for her disappearance.
Her brother, Tomas, also believes his sister is alive – however has acknowledged that he’s in recent times considered the possibility that Passy did commit suicide. However, Tomas believes that Passy did leave – possibly as per personality, which he describes her as being a “classic introvert” was in stark contrast to both his and his mother’s self-described “extroverted” and outgoing personalities.
Margaret and Tomas, along with NSW Police, also investigated the possibility that Passy may have returned to Mexico. Tomas in particular, got in contact with relatives from his late father’s side of the family, to investigate if Passy had reconnected with them. However, this lead was to no avail.
Passy’s friend, Shantelle Spalding, also gave her own account regarding the lead up to her disappearance. Passy had contacted Shantelle via phone on Monday, 9 July 2001 (Shantelle had gone away on holiday with friends). During this conversation, Passy had said she was contemplating going to Mexico instead of going to Schoolies on the Queensland Gold Coast at the end of the year, as had been planned with their group of friends. Passy also expressed that she felt her friends had only wanted her to go to Schoolies with them, as she had organised it. Shantelle responded to Passy, saying it wasn’t true and that it might the last opportunity that their group of friends might have in going away together. Passy promised Shantelle she would think about Schoolies.
Also during this conversation, Passy also expressed the importance of their friendship to her; and also spoke about their old times together – however, Passy also confided to Shantelle (and apparently breaking down in tears) that she felt she couldn’t get close to anyone because they’d always let her down.
Passy made another call, this time to Shantelle’s mother – despite the fact that Shantelle was still away. Shantelle’s mother relayed to her that Passy “had said all these things…” and that Shantelle had been “a good friend”; to which Shantelle found to be weird. Shantelle had intended to call Passy upon her return home, but never eventuated. Margaret Reyes contacted Shantelle during the early stages of her search for Passy.
Like Passy’s mother and brother, Shantelle is also of the personal belief that Passy is still alive – and is of the opinion, as Passy was a strong swimmer, that she did not enter the water at Basin Beach and had planted her clothes.
The Vanishing Profile
Upon discovering the newspaper article on Passy, during my cleanout earlier this year (Source: The Sunday Telegraph – via Imgur), I began to research her case. Prior to the renewed interest in Passy’s case following the launch of the NSW Police State Crime Command – Investigations podcast, back in August this year (2020), there was very little out there on Passy’s case on the World Wide Web.
From my own research at the time, there didn’t appear to be any articles on Passy published after 2003 – and some of those original articles were now only retrievable via the Internet Archive Wayback Machine. I did find that Margaret Reyes had been credited as a contributor to a report published by the Australian Federal Police National Missing Persons Coordination Centre, back in 2007 (Source: AFPNMPCC, refer Page 5 of 48 of the linked PDF Document). However, I found nothing online in regards to Passy’s Coronial Inquest held back in 2008.
Aside from this, I did find a post from 2014 (which I won’t be linking, due to this subreddit’s rules) on the social media page administered by the Missing Persons advocacy organisation, the Australian Missing Persons Register. There were comments from people, identifying to have either known Passy personally, or had connections to her – which generally indicated that she was still missing.
However, I will share a discrepancy that I discovered during my research – concerning her Missing Persons profile with our respective law enforcement agencies; which at the time, did raise questions in my mind about the actual status of her case.
Passy’s case is under the jurisdiction of the New South Wales Police – however, the Australian Federal Police also collates information nationally on Missing Persons cases, via its unit, the National Missing Persons Coordination Centre. Both LE agencies have their own public Missing Persons databases - the NSW Police Missing Persons Enquiry System and the AFPNMPCC website (
Passy’s profile existed (and still exits) on the AFPNMPCC website (link), however her profile did not exist on the NSW Police Missing Persons Enquiry System.
Further deepening this mystery, was my research of the NSW Police Missing Persons Enquiry System, via the Internet Archive Wayback Machine. From the following captures dated 24 August 2006, Passy was indeed publicly listed on the NSW Police Missing Persons Enquiry System – the captured links to the alphabetical index listing (link) and Passy’s actual profile (link) supporting this. However, it appears the NSW Police (and presumably, by its now disbanded Missing Persons Unit) removed Passy’s profile from its Missing Persons Enquiry System – as evidenced by this capture of its alphabetical index listing, dated 29 July 2008 (link).
In honesty, this led me to think that possibly - sometime between 2006 and 2008, that either the NSW Police had located Passy, or that Passy herself came forward; and that the case had been solved, but not publicised – hence the removal of her profile by NSW Police, with the AFPNMPCC possibly having her profile up in error. I will admit – my initial drafting of this post was not just about Passy’s case, but it was also to centre around this “mystery within a mystery” - the possibility that this could actually be a solved case.
However, as we know from the podcast from August 2020, Passy’s case is still very much active and that she sadly still remains missing. It appears, the removal of Passy’s profile from the NSW Police Missing Persons Enquiry System, was a mistake by the NSW Police. It should be noted that the NSW Police disbanded the Missing Persons Unit in 2019, after an internal review found it to be inefficient and ineffective (Source: Daily Telegraph); and was replaced by a new unit – the Missing Persons Registry.
The Missing Persons Registry have had some success already – including locating a number of living long term Missing Persons. I’ve also seen evidence that the NSW Police MPR are gradually updating and tidying up its Missing Persons Enquiry System. Admittedly, the search function on the NSW Police Missing Persons Enquiry System is a little glitchy – it does appear, even now, that Passy’s profile has not been reinstated on there. I genuinely hope, given the status of Passy’s case, that her profile is reinstated onto there again soon.
My Opinions and Theories
Passy’s case has been an interesting one for me, since becoming aware of it earlier this year. I think it’s great that the NSW Police, chose her case for their debut episode of their podcast series – which has indeed generated renewed interest and awareness of her case. It also appears that further details of her case, have now been made public in the podcast – which has been of great benefit to my research of her case.
Whilst I admit, I can see why the NSW Police lean towards the theory of suicide by drowning, based on the evidence at present. Also, I acknowledge that relatives of Missing Persons can hold firmly onto the belief that their loved one is still alive and out there, irrespective of the circumstances.
However, I genuinely believe that Passy is still alive and well; and did deliberately disappear to start a new life elsewhere. I think there were a myriad of reasons behind Passy’s decision to disappear.
Firstly, I do think Passy had some underlying mental health issues at the time. I suspect Passy was suffering from depression, as well as high anxiety and stress; and was in the midst of a mental breakdown. It was well publicised in reports following Passy’s disappearance in 2001, about her worries over the HSC. Whilst the HSC was a contributing factor, I don’t think it was the only one for Passy.
I think the trauma of Passy’s early childhood, following her kidnapping and relocation back to Mexico by her late father, greatly affected her well into her teenage years. I think as a result of this, it played into Passy being a socially withdrawn and inverted person, as well has having a degree of distrust of other people and feeling she could not (or unable to) be close to others.
I’m also inclined to believe her brother Tomas’ assessment that her personality was vastly different to either his or their mother’s. I genuinely think Passy’s perception was, she didn’t fit in within her own family and was a ‘black sheep’.
With her aforementioned upbringing, I also think Passy was struggling with her own identity as a person. She had been exploring her Mexican cultural background (particularly through her artworks), but also was balancing that to her upbringing in Australia. It should be noted – whilst there is some awareness of Mexican culture here in Australia (albeit via US culture), Mexican-Australians make up an extremely small number in population within Australia.
Aside from her family, I suspect Passy felt she didn’t fit in at school, with the small number of friends she had, or indeed the general environment of Sydney’s Northern Beaches.
I will concede, the above points do play into the possibility of suicide. However, my feeling is that Passy – as low as she may have felt at the time – was not ready to give up on her life, but was wanting to start things over again.
I’m inclined to believe Margaret Reyes’ assertions that Passy has planned and done reconnaissance for her disappearance – using the cover of “going out for a swim” for this purpose. I think Passy did consciously staged her disappearance as a suicide by drowning – motivated by a couple of reasons. This may sound contradictory, but I think Passy consciously decided to walk out her house, in the early hours of the morning, in her formal dress – to highlight her mental issues and feelings to those she was leaving behind. But I also think that she planted her clothes and personal affects at Basin Beach, giving the appearance of suicide by drowning – as some attempt to give closure to her mother, brother and everyone else in her life. However, given no sign of a body – it has brought the opposite effect to those she left behind.
Although she planned certain aspects of her disappearance, I also think she didn’t think out certain aspects of it. I do suspect she did live rough for the first week or two after her disappearance, around the Northern Beaches of Sydney; and had only taken a small amount of items with her. I’m inclined to believe the sightings reported by Gary Spalding, were indeed of Passy.
I am also inclined to believe Glenn Emmeriks’ account of seeing Passy at a cake shop in Kings Cross, eight weeks after her disappearance. I do think its possible that Passy, by that stage had found some accommodation – either at a boarding house, or possibly a share house, perhaps within the Darlinghurst and Kings Cross area of Sydney.
I also think Passy may have found employment by that stage too – although may have been working cash-in-hand. An issue that’s gained attention in Australia in recent times is wage theft - where businesses, including some major retailers, have paid employees; particularly casual staff; below award wage. There are also accusations that some business have avoided paying payroll tax and superannuation, by paying their casual staff off the books and cash-in-hand. I think it’s plausible that Passy did work under such circumstances for an unscrupulous employer, which would have also allowed her to stay off the grid; and remain undetectable, during this period.
I’m also inclined to believe, as she left her Identity Documents behind, that Passy has taken on a new name and identity. Although not impossible, this would not have been an easy path for her.
Ironically, an easier path would have been for her, to have taken her Passport and other ID Documents, and relocate interstate. She could have slipped through the bureaucratic cracks, using her existing legal identity, if she had relocated interstate – especially back in 2001. Also already being 18 years of age, she had legal right to her privacy as a Missing Person, had she been found.
However, already in her life to that point, Passy had previously changed her name and identity, as a result of her late father abducting her. Therefore, the idea of doing this would not have felt foreign to her. The challenge though for Passy, would be to integrate into society (and in particular, any government and social services) under a new name and identity – especially without her existing ID Documents.
Although a somewhat difficult and expensive way to achieve this – Passy may have paid someone (possibly a syndicate with connections/or access to government departments and databases) to provide her with fraudulent ID Documents under her new name – ones which may have allowed her to access government and other services without arousing suspicions; and allow her to live a normal life.
Although most government databases in Australia were computerised by 2001, it may have been somewhat easier to produce fraudulent ID documents, as well as circumventing the bureaucratic system with them. Also, it is possible that Passy did focus and worked hard to afford and obtain these documents, in her aim to start a new life.
I’m also inclined to believe that Passy has stayed in Australia, but has relocated interstate. Despite her cultural connection to Mexico, I personally feel she has not relocated overseas. Although she may have been looking to escape Sydney’s Northern Beaches – I would not rule out Passy still having an affinity toward the beachside lifestyle. One region of Australia, that I could picture Passy possibly being in, is on the Queensland Sunshine Coast. Although the region is a tourist hub, it is renowned for its laid back lifestyle, its surf beaches; and some areas of it are secluded and tranquil. As Passy, according to her own brother, was someone who enjoyed her own space, I can see such an area appealing to her.
Irrespective of where she is, I can picture Passy otherwise living a normal life. Although I still think she would be a reserved personality – I do think it's a possibility that she has gained confidence and self esteem; and might have made friendships and connections to a small number of people.
However, I suspect that Passy is unwilling to come forward, or to return to any aspect of her former life, at this point in time. I still suspect she is unwilling to reconnect with her mother or brother – perhaps still feeling she is personality-wise, too different to them, to truly have a connection. Also, if as I theorised – that Passy has established a new identity via fraudulent documents, she may have concerns for any potential legal implications of this.
In saying that, I genuinely hope that one day, that Margaret and Tomas do receive answers in regards to Passy; and that perhaps somehow, they can be reunited with her.
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